Small but growing number of borrowers are experiencing financial stress from rate shock - Reserve Bank

Australian households continue to be resilient in the face of aggressive interest rate rises and the high cost of living - though a small but growing number of borrowers are experiencing financial stress.

Listen to my coverage from The World Today on ABC Radio

 

The Reserve Bank says less than 1 percent of owner-occupied housing loans are 90 days or more in arrears with just 0.5 percent estimated to be in negative equity, where an outstanding loan exceeds the value of a property.

 

In its latest Financial StabilityReview released today, the RBA says the number of borrowers whose mortgage repayments and essential living costs exceed their pay packets remains at 5 percent.

 

“In addition to cutting back on their spending to mostly essential items and trading down in quality for some goods and services, these households have had to make other difficult adjustments to continue servicing their mortgages,” the bi-annual review says.

 

“These include drawing down on liquid savings, selling assets and working additional hours.”

 

However, the review says while “pockets of stress”  remain, the “vast majority” of borrowers continue to service their debts and most have maintained or added to their mortgage buffers.

 

But the RBA says “only a very small share” of borrowers face negative equity because of the ongoing growth in housing prices.

 

The RBA says as a last resort most borrowers would be able to sell their properties and repay their loans in full before defaulting on repayments.

 

The review says borrowers on the lowest incomes “are overrepresented” in the group most at risk from rising unemployment.

 

While borrowers are historically “more resilient” to rising unemployment in an economic downturn the RBA “most would not have sufficient cash” to cover repayments if one or more household members lost their job.

 

The Financial Stability Review comes two days after the Reserve Bank left interest rates on hold at 4.35 percent with RBA governor Michele Bullock ruling out an interest rate cut until next year when inflation is expected to slow further.

 

The review singles out China as a potential economic flashpoint given imbalances in the nation’s financial sector and ongoing weakness in its real estate sector.

 

Chinese authorities announced a range of stimulus measures earlier this week to support its slowing economy.

 

But the RBA warns “stress could spill over to the rest of the Chinese economy and financial system which would likely affect the global economy and financial system.”

 

The review also highlights rising geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East as key risks with potential fallout in Australia.

 

Australian banks have a “high level of resilience” and remain well-positioned with a deterioration on economic conditions unlikely to halt lending activity.

 

Arrears in non-bank lenders have picked up, but the RBA says system-wide risks remain contained.

 

Other risks noted in the review include the rapid digitisation of the financial system, an increase in “complexity and interconnectedness” from the rising of artificial intelligence and cloud computing.

 

The Crowdstrike global outage two months ago where computers in much of the world were taken offline was cited as a key example, given the everpresesent risks of cyberattacks by criminal hackers.

When you're in a hole, stop digging. Could Coles, Woolworths settle with the ACCC on fake discount allegations?

Trust, reputation, social licence.

Words we often hear from big corporates as they weave their way through a myriad of political, regulatory and consumer hurdles where a single mistep can unravel decades of a hard-won family friendly status.

The major banks lost plenty of reputational skin in the financial services royal commission where evidence that trusted institutions put profits before people shredded corporate careers.

National Australia Bank chief executive Andrew Thorburn and his chairman Ken Henry were the high profile bankers to walk the corporate plank.

Now it's the turn of the supermarket giants Coles and Woolworths which stand accused of misleading consumers about price discounts on hundreds of products.

While the allegations are yet to be tested in the Federal Court, the no-nonsense pursuit by ACCC chair Gina Cass-Gottleib only confirms suspicions held by consumers that promotions like "down down" from Coles and "prices dropped" from Woolworths are dodgy.

Or "illusory" as Gina Cass-Gottlieb claimed yesterday in a full court media conference that mirrored the televised drama from the tough cops on the beat like the US Securities & Exchange Commission.

Ms Cass-Gottlieb is on a roll after targetting Qantas last year for selling fares for flights that didn't exist as the airline's reputation unravelled resulting in the emergency exit of chief executive Alan Joyce and later chairman Richard Goyder.

Fearing a long-running battle in the Federal Court, new Qantas chief executive Vanessa Hudson settled with the ACCC for a $100 million penalty and $20 million to compensate jilted customers.

Coles chief executive Leah Weckert says the company intends to defend the allegations while her Woolworths opposite number Amanda Bardwell plans to "carefully review" the claims and while continuing to "engage with the ACCC".

But behind the scenes, it's likely that legal teams from Coles and Woolworths will be examining the scenario of a settlement to cauterise the reputation, political and investor damage.

By yesterday's close, Coles shares had plunged by 3.3 percent with Woolies ending battered and bruised down 3.4 percent.

Another less tasteful option would be for Woolworths and Coles to admit they've been caught red-handed or at least have been tricky with their discounts where consumers have allegedly been duped.

While that's unlikely in the immediate term, a full apology to angry shoppers would go some small way to rebuilding smashed trust and reputation.

It's worth a flashback to Banking Royal Commission and Kenneth Hayne's findings of poor ethical and in some cases unlawful behaviour.

Former Queensland premier Anna Bligh - now chief executive of the Australian Banking Association - confirmed a "dark day" for the banking sector and vowed to rebuild trust.

Or maybe - in the case of Coles and Woolworths - it's time to consider the first rule of crisis management.

When you're in a hole - stop digging.

Coles, Woolworths cop a sharemarket savaging after ACCC alleged supermarket giants systematically mislead consumers on discounts

Australia's supermarket giants Woolworths and Coles are being taken to court for allegedly misleading consumers about price discounts on hundreds of products.

The competition regulator, the A-Triple-C, claims consumers have been duped by promotions about discounts that were "illusory" and that rather than being lower, some prices were actually higher.

The legal action comes as Australians continue to hurt from then high cost of living .. and allegations earlier this year that supermarkets have been price gouging.

Here's my coverage from The World Today and earlier the breaking news on the Perth edition of AM.

US interest rates slashed amid recession fears; Jerome Powell reasserts Federal Reserve independence from politics ahead of US presidential election

In a move that could influence other central banks around the world, the US Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by a larger-than-usual half a percentage point.

Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell says the US economy remains strong, but he's flagged the likehood of more rate cuts to protect the softening US jobs market amid fears about a recession by the end of the year.

Mr Powell reasserted the Fed's independence from politics ahead of the US presidential election and early comments from Donald Trump that he'd like to have a say on interest rate decisions.

LISTEN to my coverage from this morning

Business Council lashes PM - rejects "scapegoat" status because of "taboo" profits

Faced with a cost-of-living crisis, a slowing economy and a looming federal election - the Prime Minister is now seeing his relationship with big business come under increased strain. 

Anthony Albanese copped plenty of swipes at last night's Business Council of Australia annual dinner in Sydney with the PM told that making profit shouldn't be "taboo" and that business shouldn't be a scapegoats for the governments current economic woes.

Here's my report for The World Today

Business Council president Geoff Culbert slams PM over unfriendly policies where "success is taboo" in Australia

It's now becoming clear that the short-lived love affair between the Prime Minister and big business has come to an abrupt end.

Anthony Albanese copped more than a few swipes at last night's Business Council of Australia annual dinner in Sydney.

BCA president Geoff Culbert says making  profit shouldn't be taboo and that business shouldn't be a scapegoats for some of the current economic woes.

The PM says his government is "proudly pro-business and pro-worker".

Here's my analysis on ABC NewsRadio

Tensions running high between PM and big business over economic reforms; PwC woes in China over Evergrande audit

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is bracing for a most likely frosty reception when he catches up with top business chiefs this evening in Sydney with many upset about his government's economic policies.

The Business Council of Australia appears to be losing patience and it's campaign is ramping up ahead of next year's federal election.

Also - PwC has been hit with US$62 million fine in China over its audit of the failed property group Evergrande.

LISTEN TO MY ANALYSIS HERE

US rate cut near certain on Thursday (Aust time). The question is "by how much?"

On Thursday morning (Australian time) , the Federal Open Market Committee - the equivalent of Australia's Reserve Bank board - ends a two day meeting.

And there'll be a much anticipated decision on where US interest rates are heading.

LISTEN to my preview here

The direction will almost certainly be down for the first time in four years from the current Federal Funds Rate of between 5.25pc and 5.5pc.

The question is whether this will be the standard quarter of a percentage point cut (which feels most likely) .. or something bigger.

Could it be a supersized cut of half a percentage point?

Late last week, traders were factoring in that possibility given worries about a possible recession in the US, recent market volatility and that the Fed might have overdone its rate hikes.

After months of pressure, the chief executive of Nine Entertainment Mike Sneesby has announced he's leaving the company.

Mr Sneesby's departure comes after major cultural issues at Nine including allegations of sexual harrassment by former staff and the controversial exit of Nine's chairman, the former federal Treasurer Peter Costello.

So did Mike Sneesby leave voluntarily or was he pushed?

Sharemarket activist Stephen Mayne tells me either way, Mr Sneesby would have known his time was up.

LISTEN HERE

US interest rate cut most likely cemented after inflation slows closer to Federal Reserve's 2 percent target

A long-awaited interest rate cut in the United States looks almost certain after more good news on the pace inflation overnight.

So could that add to the pressure for rate cuts here in Australia ?

The advice is - don't get your hopes up too much.

I speak with Tom Oriti on ABC Newsradio

From The Vault - ABC News on the 1986 launch of Holden's VL Commodore

 

Global oil price now below US$70 a barrel; Apple's double Irish tax deal unravels

Like most people, you're probably growing weary of "bill shock" at the petrol bowser.

But could there be relief in sight as the global oil price continues to tumble?

Also, Apple's sweetheart tax deal with Ireland unravels as the European Court of Justice orders Irish tax authorities to recover 13 billion Euros (A$21 billion) in unpaid taxes.

LISTEN HERE

Star Entertainment executive chair David Foster privately suggested abolishing NSW casino regulator, inquiry hears

Star Entertainment executive chairman David Foster privately canvassed abolishing the independent casino regulator in New South Wales despite public comments he was fully cooperating, an inquiry has heard.

Mr Foster admitted making the comments in a text message to then-chief executive Robbie Cooke, but said they were "out of context" and "made in the heat of the moment".

LISTEN to my coverage of the second Star Entertainment inquiry

Under questioning from counsel assisting the inquiry Caspar Conde, Mr Foster said the suggestion about abolishing the NSW Independent Casino Commission (NICC) related to "levelling the playing field" to ensure pubs and clubs receive the same scrutiny as casinos.

Mr Foster said Mr Cooke did not endorse his suggestion to abolish the NICC but responded "yes it is on my list".

Mr Foster was also asked about text comments on January 31 2024 that casino regulator was "prepping for war .. and we'd better do the same".

"It was a comment made in the heat of the moment," Mr Foster told the inquiry.

"As I've reflected on it, I was a bit trigger happy with a number of my texts.

"I do stress that all of my engagement with the regulator and Mr Weekes (special external manager to Star) has always been professional and constructive."

Last week, external manager Nick Weekes told the inquiry he assumed top Star executives were spying on his diary ahead of a special meeting with NSW casino regulators.

Mr Foster is alleged to have to CEO Robbie Cooke that Star could have an opportunity to "get rid" of Mr Weekes.

The second inquiry led by Adam Bell SC is examing whether Star Entertainment is suitable to hold a casino licence in New South Wales.

AUSTRAC slaps businesses with fines for failing to comply with anti-money laundering, counter-terror financing laws

The financial intellegence agency has slapped a range of businesses with infringement notices for failing to comply with their reporting obligations on anti-money laundering laws and counter-terrorison funding.

The Australian Transaction Reports and Analysis Centre (AUSTRAC) has targeted companies and sole traders including pubs, clubs, non-bank lenders, bookmakers, financial services providers and trustees.

The initial infringement notices range from $3,300 for sole traders to $16,500 for companies for each contravention.

AUSTRAC has named the entities as Global Capital Management, Katoomba RSL All Services Club, Powered Investments, Albany Capital Investors, CP2 Investment Services and Archiwoods Capital.

In a statement, AUSTRAC CEO Brendan Thomas said ensuring businesses comply with anti-money laundering and counter-terror financing rules is critical to safeguarding Australian communities from serious crime.

"A key aspect of Australia's anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing regime is ensuring AUSTRAC receives information from businesses to support our work, and the work of our law enforcement partners," Mr Thomas said.

"Criminals and terrorists target businesses with weak anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing settings, which is why continued industry engagement is crucial."

The infringement notices related to failures to report the 2022 annual compliance report.

Pandemic super raid to cost $85 billion as more retirees tap aged pension - according to Super Members Council

Four years after the pandemic emergency was declared, the massive financial and social cost of allowing Australians to raid their retirement nesteggs is becoming clear.

LISTEN: Pandemic super raid to cost $85 billion as more people tap aged pension

New analysis shows the Morrison government's early release of superannuation scheme could hit future taxpayers with as much as $85 billion additional costs as people who tapped super funds are forced to rely on the aged pension.

Modelling by the Super Members Council - which represents funds managing $1.4 billion of retirement savings - shows the Early Release of Super Scheme scheme will mean a higher reliance on the aged pension and lower tax from superannuation hitting $2.5 billion a year by the mid-2060s.

Super Members Council chief executive Misha Schubert told the ABC's AM program the financial toll of the early release scheme where members miss out on compound interest will burden all Australian taxpayers for decades to come.

"In the early stages of the COVID pandemic, before government assistance kicked in with JobKeeper, many Australians were encouraged to sacrifice their retirement savings to support themselves," Ms Schubert said.

"Tragically, that will now leave many people significantly poorer in retirement.

"Those withdrawals will also cost the next generation of taxpayers in a case of fiscal long-COVID."

Mischa Schubert, CEO Super Members Council (supplied)

It's been estimated that three million Australians withdrew around $38 billion from superannuation under the scheme which was introduced as an emergency measure in April 2020 in face of an economic crisis where the unemployment rate was feared to hit 25 percent.

Australians who claimed to be financially impacted by COVID-19 were able to apply to access their superannuation between April and December 2020 to take two maximum portions of $10,000 totalling $20,000.

According to the analysis, all of today's 20-year-olds are projected to pay about $3,000 more tax to cover the higher pension bill caused by the scheme.

In an example of a 30-year-old who withdrew the maximum $20,000 from super during the pandemic, there would be would $93,600 less at retirement leaving the member "dramatically worse off in their lifetimes".

In a statement, Assistant Treasurer Stephen Jones attacked what he called the Morrison government's "raid" of the super system during the pandemic.

"It's crystal clear that the former government's raid of the super system had a devastating impact on the retirement savings of millions of Australians," Mr Jones said.

"It's why the Albanese Government is committed to legislating an objective of super to help prevent this sort of short-sightedness ever happening again."

The expected toll from the super access program comes as a senate committee examines the objective of superannuation.

The federal government maintains the main objective must be to provide a dignified retirement nest egg which shouldn't be eroded by populist proposals such as using super for a housing deposit, paying off HECs debts or to fund aged care.

Higher mortgage stress but "still resilient" economy: Commonwealth Bank boss Matt Comyn

Commonwealth Bank chief executive Matt Comyn says there has been a slight increase in loan arrears and impairments as Australians struggle to pay their mortgage. 

But he still sees the economy as "fairly resilient" despite aggresive interest rate rises. 

Mr Comyn also called for flexibility in the "right to disconnect" and still thinks there's a future for cash.

Commonwealth Bank has revealed an 8 per cent fall in its half year profit to $4.8 billion. 

Matt Comyn speaks with ABC's Peter Ryan

Jobless likely to tick to 4 per cent; Commonwealth Bank to deliver another bumper profit in snapshot of broad economy health

Australia's unemployment rate is likely to tick slightly higher when official figures are released on Thursday.

LISTEN TO MY OUTLOOK ON ABC NEWSRADIO

Economists predict the January jobless rate will come in at 4 per cent, up from 3.9 per cent in December, with around 30,000 new jobs created.

That's a bounceback from December when 65,000 positions were lost.

The marginal rise in unemployment comes as the impact of 13 interest rates rises since May 2022 continues to slow the economy.

Other key indicators this week will be an update on business confidence from the National Australia Bank and consumer sentiment from Westpac.

The company reporting season continues with profit updates from JB Hi Fi, the Commonwealth Bank, Telstra, Origin Energy and AMP.

Wall Street ended mainly higher at the week as investors snapped in technology stocks that could benefit from the boom in artificial intelligence.

Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock cautious on rate cuts while inflation remains above 4 per cent

Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock warns there "still some way to go" to meet the midpoint of the inflation target range of 2 to 3 per cent, adding the central bank has not ruled out another rise in interest rates, neither has it ruled it in. 

Ms Bullock told the House Economics Committee the Board "considered a range of scenario" before Tuesday's decision to leave the cash rate on hold at 4.35 per cent.

Here's my analysis on The World Today

Robots at home, smart kitchens, smart bathrooms - NBN Co boss Stephen Rue on AI future

Robots in the home, smart kitchens, smart bathrooms, better healthcare and virtual reality becoming part of our lives.

That's the not-to-distant future for Australian households as the National Broadband Network embraces artificial intelligence and what will be massive demand for greater internet bandwidth.

The NBN Co's Stephen Rue concedes there are big ethical and moral hurdles to overcome but he predicts A-I will life changing, rivalling the introduction of the Internet and the I-phone.

Here's my interview with Stephen Rue

"the last of the old school bankers" - National Australia Bank chief executive Ross McEwan to retire with Andrew Irvine to take over

Five years ago, the National Australia Bank was in deep damage control after losing both its chief executive Andrew Thorburn and chairman Ken Henry who were forced to resign after the banking royal commission.

The board of Australia's second biggest bank turned to banking veteran Ross McEwan to rescue the NAB and to somehow restore it's smashed reputation.

Now Ross McEwan's time is up.

The 66 year old Melbourne-based New Zealander is retiring and making way for Andrew Irvine currently the head of the NAB's business and bank.

I spoke with both Mr McEwan and Mr Irvine after the announcement about about scams, cheques and the future of cash.

But I began with Ross McEwan about the early dark days after the Royal Commission.

LISTEN TO THE INTERVIEW HERE

Here's my early take on Ross McEwan's retirement posted on ABC News Online shortly after the announcement.

Ross McEwan was almost the National Australia Banks accidential chief executive. 

He was recruited in late 2019 in the wake of the Banking Royal Commision which claimed the scalps of top NAB executive including his predecessor Andrew Thorburn and chairman Ken Henry. 

At the time of his appointment, Mr McEwan said there was no "silver bullet" to restore the NAB's reputation and credibility after the bank was smeared with allegations and evidence of shoddy banking practices.

But in his four years as CEO, Ross McEwan has worked to restore trust and to put a human face to banking.

He regularly toured regional Australia in the wake of devastating bushfire to provide confidence the NAB would stand by to assist business borrowers.

And he went interstate to gauge the impact of pandemic lockdowns across Australia where the economic impact of closed borders and staff shortages ravaged businesses big and small.

A one time head of retail banking at the Commonwealth Bank, Mr McEwan was overlooked to replace Ralph Norris as CEO - a role won by Ian Narev.

But in most ways, Mr McEwan dodged a bullet and Ian Narev was swept into managing scandal at the CBA's insurance arm CommInsure and later fallout from anti-money laundering and counter terror financing breaches.

Mr McEwan went on to be CEO at the Royal Bank of Scotland in the wake of the global financial crisis which saw the once prestigious bank bailed out by the British taxpayer.

Mr McEwan's reputation as a calm, straight speaking banker with high level crisis management credentials will be a hard act to follow for his successor Andrew Irvine as the NAB continues to go back to basics.

 

Reserve Bank board considered pre-Christmas rate hike but paused on "encouraging signs" about slowing inflation

The Reserve Bank board left official interest rates on hold a fortnight ago given "encouraging signs" that aggressive hikes are conquering inflation. 

In its final meeting of the year, the RBA board held the cash rate at 4.35 per cent despite concerns that inflation could remain above the 2 to 3 per cent target "for a prolonged period".

Here's my hot take for The World Today from outside RBA headquarters in Sydney's Martin Place

Tax identity fraudsters stealing billions of dollars from hijacked tax accounts. Inspector-General of Taxation launches probe.

Inspector-General of Taxation Karen Payne is investigating the theft and hijacking of personal information that's allowed millions of dollars of tax fraud by professional scammers.

LISTEN: I speak with Inspector-General of Taxation Karen Payne

Ms Payne - whose agency probes complaints about the Australian Taxation Office - has raised concerns that criminals have been using stolen identities to infiltrate the tax system to change details and then illegally claim tax refunds belonging to another taxpayer.

Here's a special I did for ABC News On Demand

The Inspector-General is investigating 130 complaints the ATO is yet to resolve and says evidence of infiltration by scammers to steal tax refunds potentially undermines faith in the security of personal details and tax accounts.

"It does rattle confidence in the tax system. What I'm concerned about is whether the tax system itself and the  checks and balances within that system are working so that this doesn't happen," Ms Payne told the ABC's "AM" program.

"How many of those tax debts have been created because people have fraudulently access people's personal details to claim refunds they're not entitled to? How has somebody been able to infiltrate the tax system?"

Ms Payne says scammers have been able to reap windfall refunds as part of a criminal bonana. 

"We have an idea that it's actually in the millions (of dollars). And that's a significant sum of money that that warrants further investigation by our agency," Ms Payne said.

The Australian Taxation Office has agreed to meet with Ms Payne in early 2024 to provide a briefing on the extent of the tax identity fraud.

"These are cases that the ATO has not been able to resolve satisfactorily. These are the cases that the Tax Office didn't resolve to the satisfaction of the complainant," Ms Payne said.

"These are unsuspecting individual taxpayers who've had their accounts compromised and use to perpetrate a fraud in the tax system. Why is that not being caught before the money goes out the door?"

A spokesperson for the Australian Taxation Office says they're aware of the Inspector-General's investigation that the ATO has sophisticated processes across its systems to detect fraud. 

"Our systems and controls are strong. We are working with the Inspector-General to assist with this investigation," the spokesperson said.

"The ATO is not, nor have we ever been, complacent when it comes to security and fraud prevention."

Taxpayers who suspect they're victims of tax identity fraud should call 1-800-467-033 and a complaint can be lodged with the Australian Taxation Office.

Have interest rates peaked - can we expect rate cuts next year? Optimism as Reserve Bank leaves rates steady 4.35pc

 

Also here's my special breaking coverage for the Perth edition of The World Today

Michele Bullock's honeymoon over as RBA boss hikes rates for 13th time since May 2022

After a relatively smooth induction as Reserve Bank governor, it seems the honeymoon's over for Michele Bullock.

Her decision to hike interest rates for the 13th time since May last year means more pre-Christmas pain for borrowers and the real risk of a followup in the coming months.

Here's my analysis on AM and ABC NewsRadio

As it happened. Reserve Bank in 13th rate hike since May 2022 on fears that inflation will stay higher for longer.

In what appears to have been a lineball decision, the Reserve Bank board used its Melbourne Cup Day meeting to raise the official cash rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.35 per cent.

Here's the breaking news for the Perth edition of The World Today

Going, going ... Goyder. Qantas chairman eyes early exit "in recognition of reputational issues"

After weeks of pressure, Qantas chairman Richard Goyder has announced he'll step down and leave the airline some time next year. 

The decision follows growing anger from Qantas customers and shareholder groups demanding his retirement and greater accountability for members of the Qantas board. 

Mr Goyder's pending departure comes amid allegations that Qantas sold tickets for flights that didn't exist and a High Court ruling that the airline unlawfully sacked 17-hundred ground workers at the height of the pandemic.

Here's my coverage on The World Today

Peter Costello to step down from Future Fund after 14 years as Treasurer Jim Chalmers continues "renewable" of key institutions

Former Liberal Treasurer Peter Costello won't be seeking a third term as chairman of the federal governments Future Fund.

Here's my coverage on ABC Newsradio

A spokesman for Treasurer Jim Chalmers has confirmed Mr Costello's 14 year stint first as a board member then chair will end in February after 14 years.

Mr Costello's decision to step down follows renewal at the top of key institutions including the Reserve Bank and the Productivity Commission.

The spokesman thanked Mr Costello for his "significant contribution" and said a merit-based selection process will now commence to appoint a replacement.

Mr Costello established the sovereign wealth fund as John Howard's Treasurer in 2006 with $60.5 billion in budget surpluses and proceeds from the privatision of Telstra.

A rising number of households on the cusp of financial stress, but Reserve Bank says banking system isn't at risk

Australian homes and businesses are vulnerable to financial stability risks as rising inflation and interest rates continue to pressure the global economy.

Here's my report just after I left the lockup at Martin Place in Sydney

The latest Financial Stability Review released today by the Reserve Bank warns any shock to global growth could result in lower incomes, higher unemployment and “challenge the debt-servicing capacity of more vulnerable borrowers” in Australia.

 

My report for ABC News Online

The review singles out China as a major risk where stress in the ailing property sector and other imbalances could spread to the rest of the Chinese economy and “reverberate globally”.

 

Other potential flashpoints include banking systems in the United States and Switzerland where global financial risks remain “elevated” despite intervention by governments to provide support and in the case of Credit Suisse, a forced takeover by rival UBS.

 

“Higher than anticipated loan losses resulting from rising unemployment could lead to a tightening in lending standards, amplifying the downturn,” the Review says.

 

“Inflation and interest rates remaining high for an extended period could lead to a significant deterioration in credit quality that could lead to lenders cutting back on the provision of credit.”

 

The Review warns “disorderly declines in asset prices” could disrupt the functioning of the financial system.

 

While stressing that Australia’s banks are well-positioned to absorb any shock, the Review says financial institutions could become more cautious about lending given the stresses on households struggling to meet higher mortgage repayments.

 

“In an adverse scenario where growth slows and unemployment rises more than expected, loan losses for banks would increase,” the Review says.

 

But it says high provisioning and capital levels “leaves banks well-placed to manage the increase in arrears limiting the impact on credit provision in the economy.”

 

“Systemic risks are limited due to Australian banks’ low exposure and conservative lending practices.”

 

The review says only a “very small share of borrowers” are in negative equity (where the value of a loan exceeds the value of a property) further protecting banks from credit losses.

 

While the Review says Australian households are well-placed to adapt to challenging economic conditions, it warns “some are vulnerable to further shocks”.

 

It notes most borrowers have restrained discretionary spending, reduced or drawn down savings and increases hours worked to meet repayments.

 

The Review says variable rate borrowers, who account for three-quarters of loans, have seen repayments increase between 30 per cent and 50 percent since May 22 when interest rates started rising from 0.1 percent.

 

“The vast majority of households continue to service their debts,” the Review says.

 

However, the Review does not appear to be alarmed about a feared “mortgage cliff” when fixed interest rate borrowers rollover over a higher variable interest rates world.

 

“They (fixed rate borrowers) do not appear to be at more risk than similar borrowers and in fact have benefits from having fixed their interest rates at a very low level for an extended period”.

 

Other risks to financial stability include “the increasing intensity of cyber attacks” on financial institutions, rising geopolitical tensions stemming from the war in Ukraine and effects on climate change on the global economy.

 

Global sharemarkets have been volatile in recent days on fears that interest rates in the United States will stay higher for longer given resilient inflation.

 

The Reserve Bank left interest rates steady at 4.1 percent earlier this week, but some economists think fears about inflation and rebounding real estate prices could prompt a November rate hike on Melbourne Cup Day.

 

Fair Work Ombudsman Anna Booth vows to use criminal penalties to clamp down on wage theft

Newly-appointed Fair Work Ombudsman Anna Booth has vowed to use yet-to-be legislated criminal penalties against employers who deliberately underpay or rip off their workers.

LISTEN to my interview with Anna Booth here

Ms Booth - who began as fair work cop last month - says the risk of tough criminal sanctions including potential jail time would be a major deterent to dodgy bosses if proposed criminal wage theft laws are passed by federal parliament.

"Certainly once the law has passed and there is a criminal liability, as long as the criminal standard of proof has been met then the criminal penalties could flow as well as in the ultimate case of imprisonment.," Ms Booth told the ABC's AM program in an exclusive interview.

"I think the criminal penalties if they become law will be an extremely good, specific and general deterrent. And of course, we will enforce them. 

"It is important that the awareness is raised and there's no doubt that there will be a sharper focus on behavior in that that circumstance."

Ms Booth began her five year term as Ombudsman in September after extensive experience in workplace relations including eight years as Deputy President of the Fair Work Commission from 2012 to 2020.

Ms Booth began her career in the trade union movement in the late 1970s in the clothing industry, witnessing cases of work underpayment and exploitation - paving her path to become Fair Work Ombudsman.

"Back then I observed on almost a daily basis, women being confined to their sewing machines, getting urinary tract infections and getting repetition strain injuries from their work," Ms Booth said.

"There are certain cohorts of workers who are more vulnerable than others. Young people and migrant workers, particularly visa holders .. because they're often either unaware of their rights or afraid to speak up. 

"In the clothing industry, I had seen the experience of of workers being afraid to go to the toilet whilst they were working on sewing machines. So I've seen fear in the workplace. There are still large cohorts of workers who are afraid".

As the mother of a 29 year old daughter with an intellectual disability, Ms Booth is also hoping to eliminate discrimination and injustices for people with disabilities who she says should be welcomed and integretated into the workplace.

Ms Booth recently took to Linkedin to speak about the challenges of placing Clare in employment especially as opportunies faded during the COVID lockdowns.

"Some of the inquiries to our office come either from people with a disability or on or behalf on behalf of people with disability," Ms Booth said.

"I have recently been working very hard to place my own daughter in employment. The challenge is that the workplace itself has to be a great receiving environment for any neurodiverse person. 

"I would like to see more effort put in by not just employers, but the workplace community generally in being a welcoming environment for people with disability."

Ms Booth said in addition to protecting the rights of people with disabilities, her office was casting a net wide across agriculture, aged care, fast food, and universities.

Recently, the Ombudsman's office urged the Federal Court to seek a maximum penalty against the Commonwealth Bank in relation to alleged underpayments of $16 million.

Ms Booth said the maximum penalty stance was designed to send a message to major employers that worker underpayments would not be tolerated.

"It is important that proper penalties be paid in these circumstances so that we shine a light on the behavior and and get people to sit up and take notice," Ms Booth said.

In recent years, the Fair Work Ombudsman has targetted a range of organisations for underpayments including Woolworths, Coles, Qantas and the ABC which agreed to a $600,000 "contrition payment" and an enforcable undertaking to overhaul its timekeeping systems.

A Fair Work Ombudsman spokeman said the ABC's enforcable undertaking over the underpayment of around 1900 staff was "tracking towards finalisation".

"The ABC has been cooperative and it has now completed most obligations," the spokesman said.

In addition to the contrition payment, the spokesman said the ABC had backpaid more than $12 million, plus interest and superannuation.

The ABC recently introduced a new rostering and shift tracking system to ensure it complies with the law.

Not a safe bet, but Melbourne Cup Day rate hike a rising risk

After twelve interest rate rises since May last year, bets are rising that troublesome inflation might force the Reserve Bank to deliver yet another rate hike in the coming months. 

While the RBA's cash rate looks like staying on hold at tomorrow's Board meeting, AMP chief economist Shane Oliver think a November rate rise on Melbourne Cup day is emerging as a real possibility.

Here's my report on The World Today

Pilots urge emergency ejection of Qantas chairman Richard Goyder

Pressure is continuing to grow on Qantas chairman Richard Goyder - this time from pilots who are calling for his head.

The Australian and International Pilots Association is urging Mr Goyder to step down saying they've lost confidence in him after a rolling crisis that's have damaged the Qantas reputation.

Here's my report on ABC NewsRadio

“Richard Goyder has overseen one of the most damaging periods in Qantas history which has included the illegal sacking of 1,700 workers, allegations of illegally marketing cancelled flights, and a terribly managed return to operations after Covid-19,” said AIPA president Captain Tony Lucas.

“The morale of Qantas pilots has never been lower. We have totally lost confidence in Goyder and his Board.

“Qantas desperately needs a culture reset but how can this happen with Richard Goyder as chairman?

“Despite overseeing the destruction of the Qantas brand, Goyder last week accepted a near $100,000 pay rise - taking his pay to $750,000 - while staff are expected to accept a two-year wage freeze. This is a galling and tone-deaf decision.

"Qantas is more than just an airline - it is a symbol of national pride and trust."

Rupert Murdoch steps aside to become "emeritus chairman" of News Corporation and Fox Corporation. But is he really retiring?

I woke up about 40 minutes earlier than usual this morning and stumbled at my bedside as I looked for my Iphone.

My bleary eyes immediatly went to a subject line that contained "Rupert Murdoch" and I feared the media magnate's final deadline has arrived,

But no - Rupert Murdoch has not departed for the great newsroom in the sky.

Instead, the 92 year old is stepped aside to become "chairman emeritus" making way for his son Lachlan.

Here's my first report on Early AM

I then spoke with author Paddy Manning and with Tom Oriti on ABC NewsRadio.

I also spoke on the BBC World Service

Now I need to update the Rupert Murdoch obituary to reflect the latest chapter in his remarkable and contrversial career

News Corporation papers went "full Rupert" including the New York Post

Inflation beast still a real and present danger, Reserve Bank minutes warn

The Reserve Bank has signalled that inflation remains a clear and present danger to the economy and that another interest rate rise can’t be ruled out.

Listen to my report on The World Today

That’s despite evidence that twelve interest rate rises since May last year are continuing to slow the economy with Board members warning inflation is still too high.

While the RBA board left the cash rate in hold at its meeting a fortnight ago, the minutes released this morning show the battle to get 4.9 percent inflation back into the 2 to 3 percent target zone is far from over.

In considering whether the inflict another rate hike, the Board noted that inflation was “still too high” and “was expected to remain so for an extended period”.

While headline inflation is slowing, the minutes show concern that services inflation might take a while to decline and that the labour market remains tight with the jobless rate hovering around a 50 year low.

“Were inflation to remain above target for an even longer period, this could cause inflation expectations to move higher which would likely require an even larger increase,” the minutes warn.

However, members also note that the economy is “experiencing a period of subdued growth” led by household consumption as high inflation and rate rises weigh on household budgets.

As the impact of rate rises hit, the Board noted the risk “the economy could slow more sharply than forecast” - in other words a hard economic landing.

The minutes show a deepening concern about China where conditions in the property market had deteriorated further.

“Members noted .. significant challenges from financial stress among developers and further defaults posed a risk to economic activity.”

Board members said they would be guided by incoming economic data in assessing the need for further hikes.

Money markets only see an 8 percent probability of a cash rate rise to 4.35 percent at the RBA’s October meeting.

However, if inflation makes a comeback or remains sticky, there's an outside chance of another rate rise before the end of the year.

Judo Bank economic adviser Warren Hogan sees the outside chance of a November rate rise on Melbourne Cup Day as the final nail in the coffin of inflation.

The minutes make no mention of Philip Lowe’s final meeting as Reserve Bank governor.

Michele Bullock is in her second day as RBA governor and will chair the next meeting on October 3.