US rate cut near certain on Thursday (Aust time). The question is "by how much?"

On Thursday morning (Australian time) , the Federal Open Market Committee - the equivalent of Australia's Reserve Bank board - ends a two day meeting.

And there'll be a much anticipated decision on where US interest rates are heading.

LISTEN to my preview here

The direction will almost certainly be down for the first time in four years from the current Federal Funds Rate of between 5.25pc and 5.5pc.

The question is whether this will be the standard quarter of a percentage point cut (which feels most likely) .. or something bigger.

Could it be a supersized cut of half a percentage point?

Late last week, traders were factoring in that possibility given worries about a possible recession in the US, recent market volatility and that the Fed might have overdone its rate hikes.