Thursday, May 6, 2021

NAB interim profit surges surges 144 pc on local COVID bounce; CEO Ross McEwan urges Treasurer to resist budget repair pressure

National Australia Bank has reported that its half-year profit more than doubled to $3.2 billion thanks to the Australian and New Zealand economies having a "better than expected" COVID rebound. 

CEO Ross McEwan is bullish but urges Josh Frydenberg to resist pressure for budget repair.

Here's my report from The World Today


Wednesday, May 5, 2021

ANZ profit surges on economy bounce; Westpac sued for insider trading in $16 billion Ausgrid sale

ANZ Bank has revealed that its statutory profit jumped by 45 percent to $2.9 billion for the half-year ending March 31. 

The bank released $491 million that it had set aside to cover potential COVID-19 losses, and said this was one of the "key drivers" of its much improved result. 

Also, Westpac has been accused of insider trading in relation to the alleged misuse of privileged information about the NSW government's sale of the energy agency Ausgrid.

Here's my report from The World Today


Tuesday, May 4, 2021

Port of Newcastle in funding reprieve but NAB imposes tough green conditions

Port of Newcastle has been given a funding reprieve after National Australia Bank stepped in with a $666 loan facility tied to strict green and social conditions. 

National Australia Bank group executive David Gall says the world's biggest coal export facility, will be able to reduces its repayments if it meets social and environmental targets. 

Labor MP Joel Fitzgibbon says the deal is a sign that coal and net zero emissions can live side by side.

Here's my analysis from The World Today


Monday, May 3, 2021

Westpac profit rebounds in rapid recovery from pandemic-induced economic crisis

What appears to be a rapid economic recovery from the pandemic-induced crisis is being reflected in a bumper profit from Australia's second biggest bank.

Westpac has announced a tripling of its half year profit as optimistic borrowers take on more debt to jump into a surging real estate market.

Here's my report from The World Today



Budget boost from "red hot recovery" as economy bounces back from pandemic; major banks to report bumper profits as worst case scenario avoided

The budget bottom line is set to be boosted by Australia's "red hot recovery" from the COVID recession with $31 billion set to be shaved from the deficit, according to Deloitte Access Economics. 

The optimism comes as major banks prepare to unveil higher profits, in stark contrast to gloomy predictions this time last year. 

Citi banking analyst Brendan Sproules tells ABC's Peter Ryan banks are now under pressure to review loan loss provisions introduced when unemployment was expected to surge into double digits.

Here's my analysis on RN Breakfast with Fran Kelly



Thursday, April 29, 2021

Treasurer pledges big spending budget and lower jobless rate; Joseph Longo appointed new ASIC chair as James Shipton retires hurt

Josh Frydenberg has given a commitment that the federal government won't be resorting to austerity to pay for its  massive emergency response during the pandemic induced economic crisis. 

Instead the Treasurer has flagged a big spending budget in a fortnight's time setting itself the target of getting unemployment well below five percent in a bid to lift stagnant wages. 

Also, lawyer Joseph Longo has been appointed as new chair of the corporate regulator ASIC as current chair James Shipton retires hurt despite being cleared over a tax expenses scandal.

Here's my analysis from The World Today





Wednesday, April 28, 2021

Soft inflation confirms slow recovery, endorses RBA's low rate commitment. But for how long?

The official measure of consumer prices has risen by less than expected, with inflation of 0.6 per cent over the three months to March. 

The ABS data show prices rose an average of just 1.1 per cent over the past year. 

ABC's Peter Ryan says the outlook for soft inflation confirms the Reserve Bank's commitment to key the cash rate at 0.1 percent until 2024. 



Tuesday, April 27, 2021

Entire Australia Post board to face senate grilling over ousting of CEO Christine Holgate

The senate inquiry into the controversial ousting of Australia Post chief executive Christine Holgate resumes this morning with the entire Australia Post board called to give evidence.

Board members will be under pressure to justify Ms Holgate's treatment after her decision to buy Cartier watches to reward top executives sparked an angry outburst from the Prime Minister.

But was Ms Holgate's ousting solely due to the Cartier watches "scandal" or her opposition to a Boston Consulting Group report recommending deep cuts and a path to privatisation?

Here's my analysis when I spoke with Thomas Oriti on ABC NewsRadio.




Monday, April 26, 2021

Budget back in post-pandemic balance? UBS bets on possible surplus in 2025.

With the federal budget just a fortnight away, optimism is growing that Australia's exit from the pandemic-induced economic crisis could be sooner rather than later. 

Investment bank UBS predicts the budget deficit could be $35 billion smaller than flagged in the midyear economic update. 

Chief economist George Tharenou thinks it's "plausible" that the budget could be back in balance by 2024/25 with a $200 billion improvement.

Here's my analysis from The World Today


AMP to face investor revolt over reported $50 million payout to exiting executive Boe Pahari

Embattled wealth manager AMP looks set to face another shareholder backlash after revelations that controversial executive Boe Pahari could pocket at least $50 million dollars when he exits the company. 

While Mr Pahari was a financial rainmaker for AMP, he was at the centre of sexual harrassments allegations brought by a female subordinate that damaged the company's reputation. 

ABC's Peter Ryan speaks with shareholder activist Stephen Maybe who says investors are expected to protest at Friday's annual general meeting.


Global pandemic debt bill hits US$81 trillion and more to come: Monday Finance with Peter Ryan

The global debt bill from the COVID19 pandemic hit an eyewatering US$81 trillion at the end of 2020 as governments spent massive amounts on emergency stimulus fearing a repeat of the Great Depression. 

Janus Henderson head of Australian fixed interest Jay Sivapalan says governments are set to rack up more debt to underwrite financial stability as economies slowly normalise. 

Also, the entire Australia Post board will face a senate inquiry tomorrow as the probe into Christine Holgate's outsting as chief executive intensifies.

Here's my analysis from this morning's edition of RN Breakfast



Monday, April 19, 2021

Pandemic thrillseekers spend big local on caravans, skydiving, surfing, scuba diving according to ZIP survey

Thrillseeking Australians have switched to local spending during the pandemic with big increases in surf lessons, skydiving, scuba diving and caravans. 

The unexpected COVID spending is based on anonymised data of 1.5 million customers from buy now pay later company ZIP. 

Co-founder Peter Gray tells me Australians are living life to the full locally with international travel stalled indefinitely.





Cautious budget looms as vaccine delays rattle confidence; James Packer strikes deal with NSW regulator to end influence on Crown Resorts board as Royal Commissions loom.

It's now just over three weeks before Josh Frydenberg hands down the federal budget which is expected to deliver more targeted emergency stimulus to guide Australia out of the pandemic induced economic crisis. 

While there's been surprisingly strong economic news, major uncertainties remain that could easily derail what could be a good news budget - especially delays in getting vaccines out across the country. 

Also, James Packer strikes deal with NSW gaming regulator that see him banned from influencing the Crown Resorts board as the casino giant faces Royal Commissions in Victoria and Western Australia.

Here's my analysis from RN Breakfast with Fran Kelly where I speak with UTS chief economist Tim Harcourt.

I also speak with Tom Oriti on ABC NewsRadio


Thursday, April 15, 2021

Jobless rate dips to 5.6pc, 70k new jobs in March as Commonwealth Bank boss Matt Comyn describes economic recovery as "miraculous"

Australia's unemployment rate fell to 5.6pc in March with another 70,700 jobs added to the economy according to the ABS. 

The latest figures put the jobless rate just 0.4 of a per cent above where it was prior to the mass job losses seen at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Commonwealth Bank chief executive Matt Comyn says the jobless rate could fall to 4.7pc by the end of 2022 describing the recovery as "miraculous". 

Here's my analysis from The World Today.




Monday, April 12, 2021

Australia Post announces new CEO as Christine Holgate prepares to face senate inquiry

Australia Post has appointed a new chief executive to replace Christine Holgate who was ousted late last year after awarding four senior executives Cartier watches worth almost $20,000.

Woolworths executive Paul Graham will join Australia Post in September after more four decades of supply chain and logistics experience including roles at Deutsche Post and DHL. 

ABC's Peter Ryan says Mr Graham's appointment comes as Christine Holgate prepares to give evidence to a senate inquiry into her controversial departure.

I spoke on ABC NewsRadio shortly after Mr Graham's appointment was announced.

And here's my analysis from The World Today.

Reserve Bank warns on real estate bubble and risks of "excessive borrowing". Monday Finance with Peter Ryan.

Australia's Reserve Bank ratchets up it's concerns about surging house prices warning that record low interest rates could encourage "excessive borrowing". 

The RBA says it's carefully monitoring risk-taking by banks as borrowers continue to rush into the red hot real estate market. 

ABC's Peter Ryan says Christine Holgate's appearance before a senate inquiry into her removal as Australia Post chief executive will be closely watched event amid claims of bullying inside the organisation.

Here's my analysis in RN Breakfast this morning.



Monday, April 5, 2021

Monday Finance with Peter Ryan. Feared wave of corporate insolvencies averted despite end of emergency aid. I speak with Morgan Kelly from KPMG.

A feared wave of corporate insolvencies appears to have been averted for now despite the end of JobKeeper, bank loan deferrals and eased insolvency regulations during the crisis. 

KPMG restructuring partner Morgan Kelly tells ABC's Peter Ryan that unprecedented emergency support extended by six months has given companies additional breathing space to plan their survival in the face of the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression.

Here's my weekly outlook on RN Breakfast


Thursday, April 1, 2021

JobKeeper ends as emergency government support tapers. So what now? I speak with Paul Turton on ABC Radio in Newcastle

 Here's my chat with Paul Turton on ABC Radio, Newcastle

AMP chief Francesco De Ferrari retires, ANZ's Alexis George steps up; Deliveroo shares tank on London listing

Wealth manager AMP has confirmed chief executive Francesco De Ferrari will retire in July. 

ANZ deputy chief executive Alexis George takes over at the embattled company from July 1. 

Mr De Ferrari leaves less than three years into the AMP hot seat.

Here's my report from The World Today on ABC Radio.

I spoke to Mr De Ferrari on "AM" in late 2018 shortly after he began as CEO.

Listen here

Also, shares on the food delivery company Deliveroo tank on day 1 of its share listing in London.



Wednesday, March 31, 2021

AGL splits dirty energy assets into separate company as renewables rise accelerates - I speak with chief executive Brett Redman

The rapid rise of renewables has forced the energy giant AGL into an aggressive survival strategy by splitting its dirty fossil fuel assets into a seperate company. 

The corporate manoeuvre where legacy coal and gas assets will be housed in a company called PrimeCo comes as AGL confronts a fundamental shift to green energy and after pressure from major investors and superannuation funds. 

But AGL chief executive Brett Redman tells ABC's Peter Ryan can't be sold off given the need to "keep the lights on" during to transition to renewables.

I also speak with Thomas Oriti on ABC NewsRadio to explain the challenge AGL is facing to deliver on the strategy.




Monday, March 29, 2021

Official fallout from Jobkeeper end might not be clear for weeks

The full impact of the Jobkeeper withdrawal is unlikely to be known for at least a month as many employers decide whether they can afford to hold on to staff. 

Westpac economists think the jobless rate will drift back to 6 percent before recovering. 

ABC's Peter Ryan says as many as 150,000 jobs could disappear as a result of the Jobkeeper axing.


Emotional road trip from Brisbane ends in u-turn as Brisbane lockdown looms

People travelling interstate from Brisbane for the first time in months have been caught up in the three day lockdown.

Brendan Ryan made it halfway to Sydney and was at Forster on the New South Wales north coast when he got the news.

He'd decided to head south to visit his elderly mother who he hasn't seen since late 2019 because of last year's border restrictions.

Brendan Ryan spoke with his brother, the ABC's senior business correspondent Peter Ryan just before he made a u-turn,

Monday Finance - JobKeeper end push up to 150,000 Australians out of work

The federal government's $90 billion JobKeeper wage support scheme has officially ended in what's likely to be a uncertain new chapter in Australia's recovery from the pandemic-induced economic crisis. 

While the latest official data shows more people exited JobKeeper last month, Treasury estimates up to 150,000 jobs could be lost in the coming months as employers make hard decisions on how many roles they can afford to retain. 

ABC's Peter Ryan also looks at the mega container vessel stuck in the Suez Canal and an uncertain future for AMP chief executive Francesco De Ferrari. 


Thursday, March 25, 2021

Tourism jobs go begging in Queensland despite Jobkeeper withdrawal anxiety - NAB boss Ross McEwan agrees support needs to end

With Jobkeeper set to end at the weekend, there are fears that the end of government support will be a shock to the economy and put more Australians out of work. 

But National Australia Bank chief executive Ross McEwan has told ABC's Peter Ryan that Jobkeeper needs to end and that tourism in far north Queensland is struggling to fill jobs in hotels, bars and cafes. 


Wednesday, March 24, 2021

Crown Royal Commission to probe gambling addiction

The first of two Royal Commissions into casino licences held by Crown Resorts will examine how the casino empire deals with customers who are addicted to gambling. 

Royal Commissioner Raymond Finkelstein will also investigate determine if money laundering is still being conducted at Crown's "cash cow" Melbourne casino. 

ABC's Peter Ryan says Mr Finkelstein has demanded more information from Crown and that the Royal Commission won't tolerate delays


Crown Royal Commission to probe money laundering activity at Melbourne casino

Here's my preview of the Crown Royal Commission (Victorian edition) which gets underway in Melbourne this morning.

I speak with corporate governance expert Professor Elizabeth Sheedy of Macquarie Business School who says the stakes are high for Crown.


Monday, March 22, 2021

Monday Finance with Peter Ryan - banks rebuild reputations during COVID as digital banking demand surges

Customer demand for digital banking services has surged during the COVID crisis as Australians both young and old change their personal finance habits.

National Australia Bank group executive of personal banking Rachel Slade says 93 percent of customers now use digital banking. 

Also, Industry Super Australia launches fightback advertising campaign against the proposed "pause" in super guarantee. 

And Victoria's Royal Commission into Crown Resorts gets underway in Melbourne this week.

Here's my analysis form this morning's RN Breakfast with Fran Kelly


Thursday, March 18, 2021

Jobless rate in surprise falls as economic bounce continues

Australia's unemployment rate fell to 5.8 percent in February in the latest evidence that the economic recovery continues. 

It was a much bigger-than-expected drop, as economists were expecting it to fall slightly to 6.3%. 

Last month, 89,000 people took up new jobs – which was also better than what the market had expected.

 ABC's Peter Ryan says bets are rising that the Reserve Bank might raise interest rates earlier than expected - providing the end of Jobkeeper doesn't create a shock.

Here's my report from The World Today 


Monday, March 15, 2021

Monday Finance with Peter Ryan - could Jobkeeper end push jobless rate higher? Concerns that real estate bubble could pose systemic risk to economy.

Warnings are growing that Australia's unemployment rate will rise when emergency support like Jobkeeper ends on March 28. 

While new targeted stimulus for aviation and tourism announced last week has been cautiously welcomed by the sector, there are concerns it won't help accommodation and hospitality businesses. 

ABC's Peter Ryan speaks with Judo Bank chief executive who says the unemployment rate will rise when the Jobkeeper program wraps up.

Mr Healy also sees a systemic risk from the real estate bubble in some parts of Australia when interest rates eventually rise.

Here's my analysis from RN Breakfast this morning





Monday, March 8, 2021

Kate Carnell calls for inquiry into Porter rape allegation - Monday Finance with Peter Ryan

The distressing events in Canberra over the past few weeks revealing an unsafe work environment for women and rape allegations against the Attorney General Christian Porter have sparked calls for rapid change in the halls of political power.

One of the most experienced players in Canberra, Small Business Ombudsman Kate Carnell, is the latest demanding cultural change in politics and she also says an inquiry is needed to ensure justice is seen to be done in the case of Christian Porter - who has denied the allegations.

I spoke with Kate Carnell on this morning's edition of RN Breakfast

Monday, March 1, 2021

Crown director John Poynton quits as casino board cleanout continues

Crown Resorts has announced that another key director has quit the board of the embattled casino group. 

WA-based John Poynton has resigned from Crown's board and as chairman of the company's Burswood casino in Perth. 

Crown executive chairman Helen Coonan says the decision is "appropriate" after concerns by the New South Wales gaming regulator about Mr Poynton's  perceived lack of independence from a past relationship with majority shareholder James Packer.

Here's my report from The World Today




Monday Finance with Peter Ryan: Australian economy set to continue cautious recovery from pandemic crisis

This time last year, Australians were staring down the beginning of the biggest economic shock since the Great Depression brought on by the coronavirus pandemic.

But with vaccines being rolled out and border restrictions easing, Australia's economy is continuing to slowly recover - despite last year's damaging lockdown in Victoria.

This week we'll get the latest snapshot on the cautious economic bounceback and whether the end of Jobkeeper will unravel that optimism.

Here's my regular Monday segment with Fran Kelly on ABC RN Breakfast


Thursday, February 25, 2021

Alan Joyce vents frustration on border restrictions as Qantas posts billion dollar half year loss

Qantas chief executive Alan Joyce has vented his frustration at state and territory border restrictions that have contributed to the airline's billion dollar loss in the final six months of last year. 

Mr Joyce is urging uniform rules to ease confusion and build certainty for travellers. Mr Joyce speaks with the ABC's Peter Ryan.

I spoke with Alan Joyce for The World Today 


Wednesday, February 24, 2021

Bets rise for early rate rise despite high jobless, low inflation - though RBA sees rate close to zero until 2024

Some market strategists are beginning to bet that central banks including Australia's Reserve Bank might raise interest rates ahead of expectations as the global recovery gains pace. 

But ABC's Peter Ryan says the RBA is likely to stick to its own forecasts that rates will remain close to zero until 2024 despite rising inflation.

Here's my analysis from The World Today

Tuesday, February 23, 2021

Crown Royal Commission to probe public interest of Melbourne casino licence - could Crown cash cow on the Yarra be in jeopardy?

The Royal Commission into Crown's casino licence in Melbourne will look at public interest issues that could go to problem gambling. 

The Victorian inquiry will also look at Crown's close associates and allegations of money laundering raised in the New South Wales inquiry into the casino giant's Sydney licence. 

ABC's Peter Ryan says Crown has welcomed the Royal Commission and that it will demonstrate the reforms it already has underway.

Here's my report from this morning's edition of AM.


Monday, February 22, 2021

Royal Commission into Crown to probe Melbourne licence and public interest of casino business

Embattled casino giant Crown Resorts is facing a Royal Commission into its licence to operate in Victoria. 

The inquiry will also look at Crown's close associates and public interest issues in Crown's casino. 

ABC's Peter Ryan says Crown has welcomed the Royal Commission and that it will demonstrate the reforms it already has underway.





Monday Finance with Peter Ryan. Trust spikes in COVID crisis - but can it last when stimulus ends?

A barometer from the global communications group Edelman says trust across Australian government and business has surged during COVID crisis. 

But will that trust ebb when JobKeeper and bank loan repayment deferrals end in late March? 

Also, I assess the crisis engulfing Crown Resorts as the casino giant battles to win back the trust of regulators. 

Here's my report from this morning where I speak with Susan Redden Makatoa about Edelman's global trust barometer.


Thursday, February 18, 2021

Not all will survive when loan repayment pause ends as banks prepare for "hard decisions" - Banking Association boss Anna Bligh warns

Deferrals or pauses on bank loan repayments have been a critical lifeline during the COVID crisis, preventing many home owners and businesses from going to the wall.

But the Australian Banking Association chief executive Anna Bligh says although 91 percent of borrowers have now resumed repayments, it's clear that some won't survive as banks start calling loans in. 

The end of the loan deferral scheme coincides with the withdrawal of JobKeeper late next month.

But Ms Bligh tells ABC's Peter Ryan there won't be an economic shock when the emergency support pulls back.



Wednesday, February 17, 2021

Permanant changes to disclosure rules challenged by Labor and shareholder activists

Treasurer Josh Frydenerg is being challenged over his plans to make permanent changes to continous disclosure rules for companies listed on the Australian stock exchange. 

The overhaul would formalise temporary changes introduced during at the height of the COVID recession to shield company directors from personal liability and class actions.

But ABC's Peter Ryan says opponents claims the changes erode the disclosure regime when shareholders not more information - not less.






Crown facing new inquiry into Perth casino licence as crisis deepens

The crisis confronting Crown Resorts is deepening by the day with regulators in Western Australia recommending an investigation into whether the company is suitable to operate its Burswood casino in Perth. 

The WA probe comes after the New South Wales regulator effectively stripped Crown of its licence for a casino at Barangaroo in Sydney. 

ABC's Peter Ryan says corporate regulator ASIC is closely watching for potential breaches of corporate law.




Tuesday, February 16, 2021

Crown Resorts officially told it's not suitable to hold Sydney casino licence

Crown Resorts has been dealt another blow after the New South Wales gaming regulator said the company was no longer suitable to hold a licence for its new Sydney casino.

While Crown is racing to overhaul its board and management, the ruling is casting a shadow over the company's other lucrative casino licences in Sydney and Perth.

Here's my report from The World Today


Monday, February 15, 2021

Monday Finance on RN Breakfast: Crown chairman Helen Coonan should quit in boardroom purge, says former Victoria premier Jeff Kennett

Former Victorian premier Jeff Kennett says Crown Resorts chairman Helen Coonan should resign as part of a boardroom cleanout. 

Mr Kennett says Ms Coonan needs to take responsibility given her board role from 2011 when evidence of money laundering breaches at the casino should have been detected. 

Crown chief executive Ken Barton is also under pressure to resign after the Bergin inquiry found the company was unfit to hold a licence for a Sydney casino.

Mr Kennett is also highly critical of Victorian premier Dan Andrews who he says should face the music and resign of failures in hotel quarantine and contact tracing that sparked a five day lockdown.

Jeff Kennett spoke with the ABC's Peter Ryan on RN Breakfast



Thursday, February 11, 2021

Crown chief executive Ken Barton under pressure to quit as casino cleanout accelerates; chairman Helen Coonan unreservedly apologises for shortcomings

Pressure is growing for Crown Resorts chief executive Ken Barton to resign after the chairman of the New South Wales casino regulator said he needed to go. 

Crown's chairman Helen Coonan has unreservedly apolgised the the casino giant's shortcomings agreeing there's a urgency for root and branch change. 

NSW Independent Liquor & Gaming Authority chairman Philip Crawford agrees Mr Barton and director Andrew Demetriou "need to go".

Here's my report from The World Today


Wednesday, February 10, 2021

Commonwealth Bank boss Matt Comyn confident of no "cliff" or shock when Jobkeeper ends in late March

The pandemic-driven recession has carved a big hole from the Commonwealth Bank's bottom line with its half year profit diving 21 percent to $4.9 billion. 

Australia's biggest bank has been forced to increase its provisions for bad debts from rising unemployment while record low interest rates have also eroded the CBA's business of making money. 

But CBA chief executive Matt Comyn tells ABC's Peter Ryan he's optimistic that Jobkeeper can be removed in late March without causing more hardship or another shock.



James Packer set to sell Crown controlling stake to save Sydney casino licence as boardroom cleanout begins

The future of James Packer's gaming empire is in real jeopardy this morning after a New South Wales inquiry found Crown Resorts is not suitable to operate a new casino in Sydney. 

This morning, two Crown directors have resigned in the wake of the report - Michael Johnston and Guy Jalland who are both close to Mr Packer.

The findings are highly damaging for Mr Packer and members of Crown's board after evidence the company turned a blind eye to money laundering and fostered questionable links to shady junket operators. 

ABC's Peter Ryan speaks with Packer biographer Damon Kitney who says Mr Packer may be forced to sell down his 37 percent stake to save the Sydney licence but also Crown's cash cows in Melbourne and Perth. 



Tuesday, February 9, 2021

Crown Barangaroo licence in jeopardy after inquiry finds James Packer-controlled company not suitable to operate Sydney casino

In a severe blow to the fortunes of billionaire James Packer, an inquiry has found Crown Resorts is not suitable to operate a casino at Barangaroo in Sydney. 

Mr Packer is Crown's majority shareholder, but the inquiry by the New South Wales gaming regulator says he needs to sell down his control after allegations the company facilitated money laundering and has links with shady junket operators. 

ABC's Peter Ryan says the inquiry's finding are damning of Crown's management and board of directors, raising the question of whether the casino giant is capable of overhauling its operations.



"a dumb idea" - Labor's Joel Fitzgibbon slams ANZ's decision to dump Port of Newcastle

 Here's my analysis and coverage on The World Today

Climate risk assessments misused in financial reports leaving investors exposed, study warns

A report out this morning warns that critical financial information sometimes blurred in climate change risk models could expose businesses and consumers to major risks. 

The paper published in the journal Nature Climate Change says methodologies used in risk assessments can often be clouded in corporate "black boxes" or "commercial in confidence" agreements where information could be misconstrued. 

ABC's Peter Ryan speaks with Dr Tanya Fiedler of the University of Sydney Business School who says says company boards and top executives need to do a better job in disclosing climate change risk.



Monday, February 8, 2021

Jobkeeper exit nerves rise despite optimism about economic recovery

 As Australia's economy continues to recover from the COVID crisis, all eyes are companies rolling out their profit results this week. 

The major focus is on Wednesday when the Commonwealth Bank reveals its half year numbers and importanty the economic outlook from chief executive Matt Comyn who's remains cautiously optimistic the worst is behind us. 

But the Australian Industry Group is warning there could be a shock in late March when JobKeeper ends. 

I speak with the ABC's Nas Campanello on The World Today

I also speak earlier today on RN Breakfast with Fran Kelly

I speak with Tom Oriti on ABC News Radio.




Friday, February 5, 2021

Housing market "more resilient than expected" in covid crisis says RBA governor Philip Lowe

The governor of the Reserve Bank has warned that financial regulators will move swiftly if there's any sign of a dangerous real estate bubble developing in parts of Australia.

Philip Lowe says there are no alarm bells ringing just yet, but he'd told a parliamentary committee that regulators are monitoring the rush into property to ensure lending standards don't deteriorate.

Here's my analysis on The World Today

Wednesday, February 3, 2021

Economic recovery on track, RBA cash rate on hold until 2024; some retail traders burned as Gamestop crashes 60pc

The Reserve Bank is forecasting the economy will bounce back to its pre-pandemic strength by the middle of this year. 

However, governor Philip Lowe says the RBA's official cash rate will remain on hold until 2024 as the economy fully recovers. 

Also, Gamestop shares have lost 60 percent of their value as steep selling left some amateur day traders challenging sophisticated hedge funds badly burned.

I speak with Thomas Oriti on ABC NewsRadio

Tuesday, February 2, 2021

Silver becomes the new Gamestop, metal soars to 8 year high on risky bets

The price of silver has soared overnight as amateur traders continue to take on big professional institutions at their own high risk game. 

It's the latest installment in the current David versus Goliath battle after day traders swapping information on social media pushed up the price of a little known company Gamestop. 

ABC's Peter Ryan says there are fears that day traders buying in at the top of the market could get badly burned when the silver price corrects.


Monday, February 1, 2021

Reserve Bank to update on economic recovery; Gamestop attack on US hedge funds rattles investors

It's a big week ahead for economic news with the Reserve Bank providing a major update on Australia's recovery from the pandemic-induced shock. 

A key question for economists is how the RBA balances the current near zero interest rates with the consequence of soaring real estate prices, fueled by cheap money and pent up demand from househunters. 

ABC's Peter Ryan also discusses market volatility caused by Gamestock trading on Wall Street where retail investors on "main street" are taking on major hedge funds on Wall Street.

I also speak with Thomas Oriti on ABC NewsRadio

Thursday, January 28, 2021

Stocks fall sharply on fears of overvalued markets and pandemic woes

The Australian sharemarket has suffered heavy losses, after a sharp pullback across US and European markets overnight. 

Investors have turned more cautious on fear of overvalued stocks and the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell says there are key unknowns such as new virus strains and the effective rollout of vaccines.

Here's my report on The World Today





Wednesday, January 27, 2021

Inflation bounces as Australia shakes off deep recession

Consumer prices rose 0.9 per cent over 2020, despite Australia enduring its first recession in almost three decades. 

The Australian Bureau of Statistics says the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.9 per cent in the December quarter because of higher tobacco taxes and rising childcare expenses.  

I speak with Sally Sara on The World Today


IMF upgrades global pandemic recovery but warns of "exceptional uncertainty"

The world is slowly starting to recover from the economic carnage wrought by the pandemic but there's still "exceptional uncertainty", the International Monetary Fund has warned. 

Global growth is forecast to be 5.5 percent in 2021 as vaccinations roll out. But IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath warns vaccine hoarding by wealthy nations is a major risk to the recovery. 

Here's my report on this morning's edition of AM.


Monday, January 25, 2021

Monday Finance - Joe Biden in push for US$1.9 trillion rescue package for struggling US economy; inflation to tip higher but still subdued

Joe Biden's ascension to the US presidency has been welcomed by global investors who are betting on greater certainty and stability that was missing in the Donald Trump era. 

Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Capital Investors, says Mr Biden is also likely to ease trade tensions with China which in turn could help Australia in its own bitter trade feud with China. 

Gareth Aird, head of Australian economic at the Commonwealth Bank discusses the latest official inflation figures due on Wednesday.

Here's my analysis with Fran Kelly this morning on RN Breakfast.

Monday, December 21, 2020

Monday Finance with Peter Ryan - Sydney virus outbreak threat to economic recovery

Just when the economy looked like turning the corner after the pandemic-induced recession, the lockdown on Sydney's northern beaches is raising new fears about tougher restrictions returning as states protect themselves from the virus. 

Australian Industry Group chief executive Innes Willox says even before the outbreak, businesses were on edge about a tough year ahead especially with JobKeeper ending in late March. 

Mr Willox tells ABC's Peter Ryan that additional lockdowns would be disastrous for the economic recovery.

Wednesday, December 16, 2020

Exploited fruit pickers deserve minimum wage - Australian Workers Union urges overhaul of award to avoid $3 an hour rate

Evidence of widespread wages theft in the fruit picking sector could force the closure of an industrial loophole that allows farms to pay foreign workers as little as three dollars an hour or $60 a day. 

The Australian Workers Union will apply to the Fair Work Commission to amend the current horticulture award to ensure farm workers receive the minimum $24.80 an hour. 

ABC's Peter Ryan speaks with AWU national secretary Daniel Walton who says greater enforcement in the sector is needed to ensure workers are not exploited.

Read my story from ABC News Online

Tuesday, December 15, 2020

Could pandemic construction slump be chance to boost social housing?

Despite the social chaos caused by the pandemic, a report out this morning says the construction industry is recovering from the COVID-induced recesssion.

But a big oversupply of city apartments has put downward pressure on rents - though that reprieve could be short lived.

The National Housing Finance & Investment Corporation - the federal government's "affordable housing" agency - has produced a five year projection for housing supply and demand across major cities and regional areas

It's found the pandemic has caused the biggest shock to population growth since early last century and says international restrictions, an exodus of foreign students will free up around 200,000 extra homes over the next two years.

Hugh Hartigan, the affordable housing agency's head of research, sees an opportunity to tweak policy settings, and to challenge social norms that push back against development.

He tells me now could be the time for governments both state and federal to build more social housing. 


Monday, December 14, 2020

Monday Finance with Peter Ryan - surging iron ore price to budget rescue

After a white knuckle ride during the pandemic-induced economic crisis, there's likely to be positive news when the federal government releases it's mid year budget update or MYEFO in the coming days. E

Economists expect the budget deficit will be slightly narrowed with other key economic forecasts upgraded as the wheels of business roll in the all important leadup to Christmas. 

But higher than expected iron ore prices have also come to the budget rescue touching US$160 a tonne over the weekend. 

ABC's Peter Ryan speaks with economists Chris Richardson and Shane Oliver.

I also speak with Thomas Oriti on ABC NewsRadio

Wednesday, December 9, 2020

Unaffordable insurance premiums risk "market failure", inquiry report warns

Small businesses are being killed by unaffordable insurance policies with some premiums tripling in just a few years, Small Business Ombudsman Kate Carnell is warning. 

An inquiry is warning of dire consequences for Australia's economy as companies still feeling the impact of last summer's bushfires say they can't get insurance cover for more natural disasters. 

Ms Carnell tells ABC's Peter Ryan the federal government needs to be an insurer of last resort.



Tuesday, December 8, 2020

Ratings downgrade a necessary cost of emergency government support

Australia's massive emergency response to the COVID crisis has seen come at a cost to the powerhouse states of New South Wales and Victoria. 

Both have been stripped of their coveted AAA crediting rating as government debt surges. 

Westpac's head of rates strategy Damien McColough tells ABC's Peter Ryan the federal governmet's AAA credit rating is also vulnerable from spiralling debt.


Friday, December 4, 2020

Calls for royal commission as report details allegations blueberry farmers pay workers $3 an hour


An investigation into the blueberries industry on the New South Wales north coast is alleging systemic wages theft and intentional worker underpayment by unscrupulous labour hire firms.

LISTEN to the story broadcast on AM

Research by the McKell Institute commissioned by the Australian Workers Union claims contractors used by some farms in the Coff Harbour region have convinced young foreign workers to accept below award wages to roll over their working holiday visas.

READ my story on ABC News Online

A report released today (subs: Friday 4/12) says some labour hire firms recruiting fruit pickers for the region are "severely and intentionally underpaying their workers" and often disappear when complaints about underpayments emerge.

I speak with Joanne Shoebridge on ABC Radio in Lismore

"The dramatic growth of the blueberry sector in the absence of policy safeguards has made the region a target for nefarious labour hirers," the report says.

The report says an audit of job advertisements specific to the Coffs Coast blueberry region found some contractors offering pay rates as low as $60 for a day's work.

The horticultural industry is estimated to have enticed 3,000 foreign labourers on Working Holiday Maker (WHM) visas every year with a renewal depending on completing 88 days of regional work.

The report says the Coffs Harbour coast is home to 65 percent of Australia's blueberries crop and had attracted more than 2,000 workers at the time of the investigation which coincided with the 2020 harvest.

McKell Institute researcher Edward Cavanough who co-authored "Blue Harvest" for the AWU says some foreign workers are being paid as little as three dollars an hour.

"If workers were being paid the appropriate rate on these farms, it would be around $24 an hour. We're very rarely seeing workers get that much," Mr Cavanough said.

"Some of the stories have been absolutely harrowing. A lot of working holiday makers are having terrible experiences with subcontractors.

"We've seen incidents of workers getting abused, trying to chase money from their employer. These are some of the worst cases of worker exploitation you'll see in Australia."

Workers interviewed in the report complain about a fluctuating daily "piece rate" and that employers change it each day depending on arbitrarily set "market rates"  to ensure a workers' pay remains well below the minimum wage. 

"The ability of employers to reset piece rates each working day enables some employers to sustain low rates of pay for employees, irrespective of the fruit condition, while citing 'market rates' as a justification".

The ABC has spoken to three foreign workers recruited to work on blueberry farms who claim to have been underpaid and exploited by labour hire firms in return for help in extending their visas.

"I was really surprised. I didn't think this could happen in Australia. I had this image about the country that was very fair about working and wages," says Argentinian worker Lautiro Wickmann.

"No one complains because we need the job. They know we are desperate for our pay slips."

"Isabel", a backpacker from Ecuador, was unable to get hospitality work in Sydney during the pandemic and headed north to pick blueberries but found the per bucket or "piece rate" was barely enough to live on.

"When I arrived they told me they pay per bucket. It would be from six dollars to eight dollars. But in the first week, the rate was so low and I was only paid $120," Isabel says.

"The thing is that I didn't have enough time to complete my 88 day visa - so I was told it was that or nothing."

Isabel told the ABC the unlawful behaviour by labour hire contractors "looks like and feels like modern slavery".

Labour hire firms recruiting for the region refused to speak on the record when contacted by the ABC but denied claims that vulnerable foreign workers are being exploited or in some cases mistreated.

Australian Workers Union national secretary Daniel Walton says the report confirms a disturbing culture of intentional worker underpayment in Australia.

"We've seen worker exploitation with passports being taken, we've seen sexual assault and physical violence. The concerning thing for us is that it's getting worse, not better," Mr Walton said.

However, Mr Walton defended the report's decision not to name any labour hire firms or farms accused of wages theft.

"Quite frankly, putting the spotlight on them now is going to given them an opportunity to duck and hide and runaway."

Mr Walton criticised previous investigations for failing to clamp down on exploitation and said a Royal Commission was now necessary to safeguard worker rights.

"There is such a massive failing in this industry that a Royal Commission looks like the most appropriate way to put a stop to this," Mr Walton said.

The ABC contacted three blueberry farms in the Coffs Harbour region for comment but calls were not returned.

A major supplier with farms on the Coffs Coast - not named in the report but referred to by some workers - refused to comment but said any allegations of wages theft should be referred to directly to employers or the Fair Work Ombudsman.





Wednesday, December 2, 2020

Australia's economy bounces back from pandemic though recovery to be slow and uneven

Australia's economy is in the midst of an extraordinary recovery from the worst downturn since the Great Depression. 

Official growth figures out this morning show the economy grew 3.3 percent in the three months to September - meaning the "technical" recession brought on by the pandemic is now over. 

Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has confirmed the economy has "turned the corner" but warns the recovery will be bumpy. 

Here's my analysis from The World Today


Australia's economy to bounceback from pandemic on vaccine optimism, says bullish OECD

Australia's hopes of bouncing out of the pandemic-induced recession have been sharply upgraded in a new global report by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. 

In upgrading its outlook for the global economy, the OECD is also positive about a recovery next year with three coronavirus vaccines in development while warning that further waves can't be ruled out. 

The optimism cooincides with Australia's September quarter GDP out this morning which is expected to confirm a sharp rebound. 

Sarah Hunter, chief economist at BIS Oxford Economics, speaks with ABC's Peter Ryan.




Tuesday, December 1, 2020

Energy debt stress surges during pandemic, could worsen with Jobkeeper tapering. I speak with Australian Energy Regulator chair Clare Savage.

Households and small businesses face increasing debt stress over energy bills during the pandemic, according to the Australian Energy Regulator. 

AER Chair Clare Savage tells me while retailers have been resisted disconnecting customers, pressure on customers will grow when emergency support like JobKeeper is tapered back in March.





Monday, November 30, 2020

Technical recession over in growth rebound but V-shaped recovery unlikely, economist Jo Masters warns

It's a positive week ahead for Australia's economy, with new growth figures likely to show the recession is over - at least by the techical measure. 

Economists forecast growth in the September quarter of  2.5 percent, after a 7 percent crash in the prior reading. 

Ernst & Young economist Jo Masters says while it looks like a V-shaped rebound in paper, the reality is that unemployed Australians continue to feel the pain of a deep recession.

Here's my Monday Finance report with Fran Kelly on ABC Radio National



Thursday, November 26, 2020

Capital spending falls as business still cautious after pandemic restrictions; Telstra facing $50m fine for indigenous mobile phone plan breaches

Australian business investment fell by more than expected last quarter as coronavirus lockdowns forced firms to delay purchases of equipment, but future spending plans were upgraded in a hopeful sign of recovery. 

Also Telstra faces a $50 million fine for ripping off 108 indigenous consumers for mobile phone plans they didn't understand and couldn't afford.

Here's my analysis from The World Today



Travel refund complaints surge 497 percent amid coronavirus border closures

The consumer watchdog has revealed a massive spike in complaints against travel companies during the pandemic. 

The ACCC has received 24,200 complaints so far this year about cancellation policies and travel businesses sometimes misleading consumers about their right to a refund. 

ABC's Peter Ryan says many consumers were shocked to discover that because of the pandemic they weren't automatically entitled to get their money back.


Tuesday, November 24, 2020

Prepare for more climate induced natural disasters, NAB boss Ross McEwan warns

National Australia Bank chief executive Ross McEwan has warned that communities should prepare for more natural disasters induced by climate change. 

Mr McEwan is visiting recovering communities in regional Victoria and tells AM that climate change needs to be taken "much more seriously."

Here's my interview with Ross McEwan on this morning's edition of AM


Monday, November 23, 2020

Binge watching on streaming video surges during pandemic. But will binge on binge-watching survive Jobkeeper tapering in March?

A report by advisory firm PWC has found that spending on video-on-demand services has surged during the pandemic while traditional media has seen advertising revenue crushed. 

Like most parts of the economy, Australia's media and entertainment sector has been hit hard by the pandemic as advertising revenue continues to sink. 

PWC's annual media & entertainment outlook has found demand for streaming services for binge-watching of TV blockbusters, movies, sport has boomed. 

But PWC partner Justin Papps tells ABC's Peter Ryan there are signs the spending surge could be hit when emergency measures like JobKeeper are tapered back in March.

Here's my regular Monday Finance report with Fran Kelly on ABC Radio National

I also spoke with Sabra Lane on AM


Friday, November 20, 2020

Workers stand to lose wage rises if super guarantee rate rises, retirement review warns

A highly anticipated review into Australia's retirement income system suggests that workers could be worse off financially if the superannuation guarantee is increased as scheduled from next year. 

While the review says the current system is "sound", it leaves the door open for the Prime Minister to consider putting the legislated super increase on hold or scrapping it all together. 

ABC's Peter Ryan says the decision is likely to be delayed until the May budget.


Thursday, November 19, 2020

Compulsory superannuation rise could hurt low income earners - highly anticipated retirement review warns

A highly anticipated review into Australia's retirement income system has found the current model is "effective, sound and sustainable" but suggests workers will be worse off financially if the superannuation guarantee is increased.

The final report of the Retirement Income Review makes no recommendations on changes to the system but says there is evidence that wages will suffer when the current superannuation guarantee rate rises from the current  9.5 percent to 10 percent next year and 12 percent in 2025.

"A rate of compulsory superannuation that would result in people having an increase in their living standards in retirement may involve an unacceptable reduction in living standards prior to retirement, particularly for lower income earners," the report says.

"The weight of evidence suggests that the majority of increases in the superannuation guarantee come at the expense of growth in take-home wages."

The review into the efficiency of the $3 trillion retirement system was ordered by Treasurer Josh Frydenberg last year, but speculation has grown during the pandemic that the legislated compulsory superannuation increases might be scrapped or put on hold.

However, the report does not suggest derailing the superannuation guarantee increase and found that the current system's cost will grow only marginally by 2060.

"Without compulsory superannuation, middle income earners would not save enough for their retirement," the report says.

While not explicitly recommending the family home should be considered in the aged pension assets test, the report says there is a need for "assets rich but cash poor" retirees to consider accessing the equity in their homes to more effectively draw down on superannuation assets.

"A more efficient system, whereby retirees tap into their existing assets, also eases the reliance on superannuation guarantees and ultimately has a bigger impact on income," the report says.

The review also endorses the aged pension which it describes as "more than a safety net".

"It plays an important role in supplementing the superannuation savings of retirees and allowing them to maintain their living standards," the report says.

"It also provides a buffer for retirees whose retirement income and savings fall due to market volatility and for those who outlive their savings."

The report supports the emergency release of superannuation during the pandemic saying it has helped cushion the economic blow for many Australians in financial distress.

"The benefits of early access to superannuation will exceed the benefits of preserving balances until retirement," the report says.

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has welcomed the final report but says the observations will play an important role in developing future policy on retirement incomes.

"Our proposed super reforms will benefit Australians to the tune of $17.9 billion over the nexy ten years in the form of lower fees, improved returns and a streamlined superannuation system," Mr Frydenberg said.

Industry superannuation funds have been waiting on the retirement review and likely to welcome the absence of recommendations but will remain suspicious about reforms to the sector in the midst of the pandemic in particular any move to scrap the increase to the superannuation guarantee. 


Follow Peter Ryan on Twitter @peter_f_ryan



New Virgin boss Jayne Hrdlicka unveils "mid-market" airline but pledges tough competition with Qantas

It's a challenging new era for Virgin Australia which is out of administration and back in business after going bust at the beginning of the pandemic owing almost seven billion dollars.

The airline's new chief executive Jayne Hrdlicka is navigating border restrictions and now the lockdown in Adelaide - though she's optimistic families will be re-united at Christmas.

The new Virgin will be a "mid-market" model with a mix of budget and premium fares but Ms Hrdlicka has told AM she'll won't allow Qantas to dominate the struggling aviation industry.

Jayne Hrdlicka spoke with me on the ABC's AM program.

I also speak with Thomas Oriti on ABC NewsRadio


Wednesday, November 18, 2020

Housing bubble? No worries at the moment says relaxed Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe

Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe says he's not worried that record low interest rates are fuelling a dangerous real estate bubble in Australia. 

Mr Lowe says a "precipitous" fall in housing prices is not likely and that while house prices are holding up, prices for apartments and rentals are lower. 

ABC's Peter Ryan says Mr Lowe's relaxed mood comes as updated figures from the Australian Banking Association show a 70 percent fall on bank loans on emergency deferral.


Pandemic bank loan deferrals down 70pc, but risks ahead with JobKeeper tapering. Banking Assoc boss Anna Bligh says households & businesses have avoided "catastrophic consequences"

Bank loan deferrals are down almost 70 percent to $86 billion as emergency support measures like JobKeeper buoyed households and businesses. 

Australian Banking Association chief executive Anna Bligh remains cautious and warns of hard decisions ahead when JobKeeper is wound back next year. 

But shen tells ABC's Peter Ryan that combined bank and government measures helped to avoid "catastrophic" consequences. 









Tuesday, November 17, 2020

Reserve Bank governor's greatest fear - democracies would not tolerate pandemic lockdowns

Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe says his greatest fear in the early stages of the pandemic was that global democracies like Australia would not tolerate lockdowns and restrictions to control the spread of the virus. 

Mr Lowe said he had deep concerns that Australia might not be prepared after early lockdowns in China, Italy, South Korea and Iran. 

Also, ABC's Peter Ryan says a budget initiative by the New South Wales government to provide vouchers to every adult would be critical in getting consumers spending.

Here's my report from The World Today




Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe urges more risk-taking to aid pandemic recovery

Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has urged consumers and businesses that despite the economic fallout from the pandemic, now is the time to start taking risks. 

Speaking in Sydney last night, Mr Lowe said the central bank's priority is to create jobs and to lower the unemployment rate and that risk was needed to reach the new goals. 

Also ABC's Peter Ryan says the Australian Stock Exchange is set to re-open this morning after an embarrassing computer glitch took it offline for most of yesterday. 

I speak with Sabra Lane on AM and Thomas Oriti on ABC News Radio

Monday, November 16, 2020

One in five "buy now, pay later" customers missing payments, taking out loans to service debt ASIC report warns

Australia's corporate watchdog says some consumers are having to cut back on essentials such as meals because of debt they have racked up from using "buy now pay later" products warning one in five consumers are missing payments.  

ASIC has stopped short of recommending that the sector is regulated in the same way as credit card companies. 

Financial Counselling Australia chief executive Fiona Guthrie tells ABC's Peter Ryan that some consumers resorting to payday loans to service their debt. 


Monday Finance - investors optimistic on vaccine hopes; Nine boss Hugh Marks quits over office romance

Global investors have a cautious spring in their step at the moment with hopes that a coronavirus vaccine might be available early next year. 

But optimism about getting the health crisis under control comes in the face of surging coronavirus cases in the United States and continuing uncertainty about when Donald Trump will concede he's lost the White House to Joe Biden. 

Also, ABC's Peter Ryan says big investors are demanding higher standards after Nine Entertainment chief executive Hugh Marks resigns over rumours about an office affair.

Here's my analysis broadcast this morning on RN Breakfast


Thursday, November 12, 2020

Woolies to go 100pc green, Twiggy Forrest unveils global renewables energy push

Two corporate giants have sidestepped the hot political debate over green energy by setting their own ambitious agendas for renewable energy targets. 

Supermarket giant Woolworths plans to power all its operations with renewable energy by 2025 while Andrew Forrest's Fortescue Metals has revealed a plan to provide low cost green energy not just in Australia but right around the world. 

RE100 Australia coordinator Jon Dee tells ABC's Peter Ryan that global demand for green energy ignores the local toxic political debate.

Here's my report from this morning's AM program



Wednesday, November 11, 2020

CBA halves home loan deferrals; Westpac says consumers look forward to "normal" Christmas

Cautious optimism in Australia's economic recovery is growing with Westpac's latest confidence survey saying upbeat consumers are looking forward to a "normal" Christmas. 

Commonwealth Bank says home loans on deferrals fell 51 percent in October to 46,000 down from 125,000 in June. 

ABC's Peter Ryan says the upbeat mood is also reflected on the sharemarket with hopes of a successful vaccine from Pfizer creating winners but also losers.




Tuesday, November 10, 2020

Vaccine hopes stoke shares - Qantas, major banks surge

Global stocks have rocketed on news that Pfizer's COVID19 vaccine could be 90 percent effective. 

The euphoria saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average surge more than 5 percent at one point with big gains for travel stocks, oil producers and banks. 

But ABC's Peter Ryan says even in the best case scenario of the vaccine working, there'll be no economic snapback until the health crisis gets under control.



Global markets surge on Pfizer "90 percent effective" vaccine hopes

Global stocks have rocketed on news that Pfizer's COVID19 vaccine could be 90 percent effective. 

The euphoria saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average surge more than 5 percent at one point with big gains for travel stocks, oil producers and banks. 

But ABC's Peter Ryan says even in the best case scenario of the vaccine working, there'll be no economic snapback until the health crisis gets under control.

I also speak with Thomas Oriti on ABC NewsRadio



Monday, November 9, 2020

US President-elect Joe Biden to take heat out of US China trade war

Joe Biden's victory over Donald Trump is being welcomed by global investors with Australia likely to benefit with some heat coming out of the US China trade war. 

But with Mr Trump yet to concede defeat while he grasps at legal challenges, there's a lot of uncertainty ahead as Mr Biden confronts surging coronavirus cases, a deep recession in the US and much of his ambitious agenda likely to be blocked in the republican-controlled Senate.

ABC's Peter Ryan speaks with AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver.



Friday, November 6, 2020

Reserve Bank upbeat, cautious on economic recovery but warns it could take years

The Reserve Bank has optimistically upgraded its key economic forecasts signaling a slow recovery from the pandemic-induced recession is underway.

Here's my report from The World Today

Economic growth or gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to bounce to 6 percent by June 2021 - up from a previous 4 percent - after contracting earlier this year by a massive 7 percent as fallout from the coronavirus ravaged output.

The slight upgrade to GDP from the previous statement reflects stronger-than-expected household consumption and additional government support through programs such as JobKeeper.

"The less negative outcome stemmed largely from Australia's early success in bringing new infection rates down, which allowed restrictions on activity to be eased sooner than thought," the RBA says in its closely-watched quarterly statement on monetary policy.

But the RBA warns the severity of the downturn this year means economic growth is not expected to return to its pre-pandemic level until the end of 2021.

Deputy RBA government Guy Debelle told a parliamentary hearing last week that September quarter GDP was expected to show positive growth which would confirm the end to a "technical" recession defined by two consecutive quarters of contraction. 

Unemployment is now forecast to peak at just below 8 percent in December this year after initial estimates it would surge beyond 10 percent.

But the jobless rate is expected to remain stubbornly high and decline only gradually to 7.5 percent in June 2021 and 6 percent in December 2022.

However, consumer inflation has been downgraded slightly with both headline and trimmed mean measures forecast to bottom out at one percent before reaching 1.5 percent by the end of 2022.

The RBA says the COVID-19 outbreak in Victoria and associated restrictions slowed the initial phase of the recovery.

"Output growth in the September quarter is estimated to be around 2 percentage points lower that if that outbreak had not occurred," the RBA says.

"Outside Victoria, consumer spending has recovered noticeably and labour market conditions have improved but still remain below levels seen prior to the pandemic."

The upgraded forecasts come after a historic week in which the Reserve Bank cut the cash rate to a new record low of 0.1 percent and unleashed a program of quantitative easing to buy $100 billion of government debt over the next six months.

The switch to unconventional monetary policy - where the central banks buys swathes of government debt to push down bond yields and borrowing costs - comes after last month's Federal Budget signalled debt as high as $1.7 trillion in coming years from emergency programs.

The statement says emergency government support was critical in preventing a deeper recession.

"The significant support from both fiscal and monetary policy has been effective at preserving many jobs and businesses through the period of activity restrictions," the RBA says.

"The scale of the support has been in sharp contrast to the experience in past downturns."

The Reserve Bank also revealed a "downside" scenario where major outbreaks force tighter activity restrictions, international borders remain closed for longer and unemployment will increase.

The "upside" scenario is based on better health outcomes where ongoing control over the virus would boost confidence and possibly take unemployment back to 5.5 percent by the end of 2021.

After slashing the cash rate close to zero earlier this week, the RBA said it was not contemplating another cut and said negative interest rates were "extraordinarily unlikely".

"The Board considers there is little to be gained from short-term interest rates moving into negative territory," the statement says.

However, the RBA says it is prepared to do more to stimulate the economy and will undertake additional purchases of government debt if necessary.

Follow Peter Ryan on Twitter @peter_f_ryan



Thursday, November 5, 2020

Investors bet on Biden win; NAB boss Ross McEwan reveals 47pc profit fall to $2.5 billion as recession bites

Global markets are on edge in cautious bets that Joe Biden will scrape into the White House. 

National Australia Bank chief executive Ross McEwan says Australia must work with the winner, whether its Mr Biden or Mr Trump. 

However, Mr McEwan tells me he's more focused on the NAB's full year profit sliding 47pc to $2.5b as the pandemic-induced recession bites.



Wall Street surges on Biden victory hopes as business bets on weakened change agenda

Wall Street has surged on rising bets that Joe Biden might scrape through to the White House but that his Democratic Party won't win control of the US Congress. 

Mr Biden's agenda of higher taxes, tighter regulation and tougher scrutiny of tech company power are likely to be blocked by a Republican-controlled Senate. 

ABC's Peter Ryan says global investors are grasping for any certainty




Wednesday, November 4, 2020

Crown, James Packer "unfit" to operate NSW casino, inquiry told; Australian shares sink as investors fret on early US presidential election results

Crown Resorts and major shareholder James Packer are "unfit" to operate a casino at Barangaroo in Sydney, a NSW gaming inquiry has heard. 

The explosive comment from counsel assisting Adam Bell SC comes as Crown prepares to open Barangaroo next month. 

Also Australian shares sink despite US rally as presidential election results trickle in and worry investors.

Here's my coverage from The World Today





Tuesday, November 3, 2020

Rates near zero, massive gov't debt buying - Reserve Bank's pandemic strategy

Australia's Reserve Bank is set to unveil its latest fightback against the pandemic-induced recession. 

The big tip on Melbourne Cup day is that the RBA board will cut interest rates close to zero but also unleash a plan to buy massive amounts of government debt to keep borrowing costs low. 

I speak with Sally Sara on The World Today




Safe bet on Melbourne Cup rate cut with RBA to launch QE program

While the final hours of the US presidential race keep financial markets nervous, Australia's Reserve Bank is set to unveil its latest fightback against the pandemic-induced recession. 

The big tip on Melbourne Cup day is that the RBA board will cut interest rates close to zero but also unleash a plan to buy massive amounts of government debt to keep borrowing costs low. 

Commonwealth Bank head of Australian economics Gareth Aird speaks with ABC's Peter Ryan.







Monday, November 2, 2020

Westpac annual profit hit by money laundering fine and recession

Westpac's annual profit has slumped by two-thirds after it was fined $1.3 billion for 23 million breaches of money laundering laws. 

The bank says full-year net profit fell by 66 per cent to nearly $2.3 billion for the year to the end of September because of writedowns and the pandemic-induced recession. 

ABC's Peter Ryan says the Reserve Bank is likely to cut interest rates to a new record low when the board holds its Melbourne Cup Day meeting.






Monday Finance on RN Breakfast - US election result, RBA rate cut weigh on investor nerves

It's a massive week ahead for the global economy with the US presidential election dominating and an anticipated victory for democrat candidate Joe Biden now likely to be be much narrower than first thought. 

Also locally, most economists expect Australia's Reserve Bank to slash interest rates to almost zero in its latest pandemic response - and to unleash a program to buy more than 100 billion dollars of government debt to keep borrowing costs low. 

So what's that telling us about the true state of the economic recovery? 

Warren Hogan, industry professor at UTS Sydney, speaks with ABC's Peter Ryan.

Here's my analysis from RN Breakfast

I also spoke with Thomas Oriti on ABC NewsRadio after Westpac revealed a 66pc plunge in full year profit to $2.29 billion