Flash-in-the-pan surplus in sight but budget gloom remains as Jim Chalmers grapples with blowouts

A week out from the Federal Budget, there are optimistic forecasts that Treasurer Jim Chalmers might find himself with a small - albeit temporary - surplus by the end of the year.

That would be a remarkable turnaround from the dark days of the pandemic where supersized deficits stretched out over the horizon.

But the good fortune from windfall commodity prices will be shortlived as the federal government grapples with spending blowouts for programs like the NDIS.

I speak with econmist and Treasury watcher Chris Richardson on the ABC's AM program