The
likelihood of the first US interest rate rise in a year has slightly
strengthened after a number of Federal Reserve voting members said a hike would
be justified "relatively soon".
With
markets factoring in as much as a 70 percent chance of a December rate hike,
several members noted higher rates would be warranted if the US economy
continues to strengthen.
"Several members judged
that it would be appropriate to increase the target range for the federal funds
rate relatively soon if economic developments unfolded .. as expected,"
according to the minutes from the Fed's September policy meeting.
Despite
signs of a stronger appetite for a rate rise, the minutes also signal caution
and division among members about the actual timing on a rates move.
"It
was noted that a reasonable argument could be made either for an increase at
this meeting or for waiting for some additional information on the labor market
and inflation," the minutes say.
"A couple of members emphasized that a
cautious approach to removing accommodation was warranted."
The minutes show that
three voting members on the Fed's rate-setting committee dissented on the
September policy in favor of an immediate hike when rates were left at between
0.25 and 0.5 percent.
There is concern that
"without gradual increases in the target range" a tighter labour
market could result in "a subsequent sharp tightening .. that could
shorten the economic expansion."
There also appears to
be jitters that inflation remains below the Fed's two percent target with
voting members noting that "there were few signs of emerging inflationary
pressures."
Wall Street stocks
ended 0.1 percent higher after the Fed minutes were released despite initial
analysis showing little new information in the Fed's rates thinking.
The US dollar was
slightly higher on the continued speculation that the Fed will push the rates
button in December.
The Federal Reserve
board next meets on November 1 but a rate rise is seen unlikely a week out from
the US presidential election.
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