The Reserve Bank appears to have been cleared of an
internal leak after unusual trading in the Australian dollar seconds before two
key interest rate decisions earlier this year.
The suspicious trading in February and March had been
referred to the Australian Securities & Investments Commission (ASIC) given
concerns about the security of board decisions and the potential to move
markets.
A third incident of unusual trading before the cash rate
decision in April has also been referred to ASIC.
The minutes from the RBA board's most recent meeting says
members were briefed on the progress of the ASIC probe but that the theory of a
rogue insider leaking the information had been ruled out.
"Internal work since March has not identified any
evidence of procedural lapses or conduct that could have led to the early
release of relevant information," the minutes say.
The RBA is now working on the theory that the unusual
trades could have been caused by algorithmic or high speed trading the
triggered other buying or selling in currency markets.
"Illiquid conditions that existed in the foreign
exchange market at the time meant that small trades could move by relatively
large amounts," the minutes say.
"Once such movements occurred it would be highly
likely that algorithmic trading strategies would exacerbate such
movements."
In keeping the cash rate on hold at 2.25 percent a
fortnight ago the Reserve Bank also repeated its warning that record low
interest rates could "foster imbalances" in Sydney's booming housing
market.
"The most recent data suggested that activity in the
housing market "remained strong" and that "there had been little
change to housing market conditions or in the growth of housing credit in early
2015".
Earlier today in New York, the RBA governor Glenn Stevens
ramped up his concerns saying that prices in Sydney were "rather
exuberant".
However, Mr Stevens also said the current focus on Sydney
real estate in terms of monetary policy tended to ignore the softer trends in
the remaining 80 percent of the country.
While the minutes say "a further easing may be
appropriate" in interest rates, it would be important to receive more
economic data to determine the impact of the February rate cut.
The latest reading on quarter consumer inflation out
tomorrow now appears to be key in whether the Reserve Bank will decide on a
pre-Budget rate cut in May.
The minutes also express concern about the economic
slowdown in China where deteriorating conditions in the property market had
"increased the vulnerability of leverage property developers".
The RBA also noted the weakness in China is flowing
through to lower demand for steel which has contributed to the current plunge
in the price of iron ore.
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