Thursday, March 5, 2020

39 million deaths, trillion dollar slice from global economy, as PWC warns on coronavirus toll

There are alarming projections about that human toll from the coronavirus with one warning that as many as 39 million people could die in a pandemic. 

The dire outlook from the advisory firm PriceWaterhouseCoopers warns half the world's population could contract the deadly disease over the next year. 

PWC says a US$1 trillion could be carved from the global economy and $34 billion dollars in Australia where the government's forecast surplus could swing into a heavy deficit not seen since the global financial crisis. 

ABC's Peter Ryan with the latest on the economic fallout.

Reserve Bank warns coronaviris hit puts economy on recession alert, deputy governor Guy Debelle in sombre parliamentary appearance

The Reserve Bank predicts the coronavirus will carve 0.5 percentage points from the economy taking Australia into recession territory after 29 years of unbroken growth. 

Deputy governor Guy Debelle warns the hit to tourism and tertiary education on their own will damage economic growth. 

The International Monetary Fund is the latest global authority to act and will provide U$50 billion in grants and emergency funding. 

ABC's Peter Ryan analyses the latest developments

Wednesday, March 4, 2020

Australia's economy beats expectations ahead of bushfire, coronavirus impacts. But could the 29 year recession free run soon be at risk?

There's some positive news on Australia's economy with official growth figures for the final three months of last year coming in better than expected. 

But unexpected growth of half a percent in the final quarter of 2019 might be a end of a positive run with the coronavirus and bushfires in south eastern Australia likely to push the economy into recession territory later this year. 

ABC's Peter Ryan analyses the risks.

Emergency rate cut in US fails to calm investors spooked by coronavirus; AMP chief economist Shane Oliver warns of economic contraction later this year

The US Federal Reserve has cut its main interest rate by half a percentage point, in an emergency move to counter the rapidly spreading coronavirus. 

The rate cut underscores the seriousness of the crisis and follows yesterday's 0.25 percentage point reduction by Australia's Reserve Bank. T

The action by America's central bank comes as economists wait on the latest official GDP data out later this morning which is expected to confirm a slowing economy. 

ABC's Peter Ryan analyses the central bank intervention.

Tuesday, March 3, 2020

Reserve Bank in cash rate cut to confront coronavirus outbreak


Here's my report for a special edition of The World Today


Coronavirus biggest economic danger since GFC, warns OECD; Wall Street surges on central bank intervention, Dow ends up 5.1 percent

The coronavirus is the biggest risk to the world's economy since the global financial crisis more than a decade ago, the OECD has warned. 

Australia's economy has been singled out given the hit to tourism and education along with Japan and South Korea. 

At the same time, Australia's Reserve Bank appears almost certain to cut interest rates to calm nerves about a pandemic.

Here's my analysis from this morning's edition of AM