Follow the ABC's Peter Ryan. Analysis of global and Australian business, finance and economics.
Thursday, September 11, 2014
Rupert Murdoch says page 3 topless girls here to stay as long as customers want them
Rupert Murdoch has take to Twitter once again to defend the use of topless women on page three of his mass circulation British cash cows, The Sun and The Sunday Sun (which replaced The News of the World).
While Mr Murdoch thinks the page 3 pinups are "old fashioned", he says average readers still want them.
But the media titan asked his Twitter followers for their opinions tweeting "aren't beautiful young women more attractive in at least some fashionable clothes?".
It's a long debate between profit and punter preferences - assuming of course that readers of The Sun buy it to read the journalism.
Not surprisingly, Mr Murdoch reminded his critics who is in charge.
"Brit feminists bang on forever about page 3. I bet never buy paper. I think old fashioned but readers seem to disagree."
Wednesday, September 10, 2014
Scotland independence poll puts banks on alert; Deutsche Bank warns "be afraid, be very afraid".
After being overshadowed by other greater geopolitical events - such as turmoil in Ukraine and the Middle East - next week's referendum on whether Scotland should secede from Britain is starting to get interesting.
An opinion poll has shown for the first time that a narrow majority of Scots might vote for independence and splinter the 307 year old union with the United Kingdom.
The poll points to a knife-edge result but already it has caused enough uncertainty to push the British pound to its lowest level since November.
Here's my report from yesterday's edition of The World Today.
DEUTSCHE BANK
- "Be afraid, be very afraid."
- "The implications of a yes vote would be huge, and
are magnified by the sense of institutional unpreparedness. A 'yes' vote
could easily derail the UK economic recovery.
- Could cause a "destabilizing crisis" in the
banking system and at best leave the rest of the UK with an unstable
currency union during talks on the new fiscal and monetary arrangement.
- "There is now no question that the momentum is now
all with 'yes'."
- Near-term consequences of a "Yes" for the
Scottish economy, and for the UK more broadly, could be "severely
negative". In the long run, "little reason why an independent
Scotland could not prosper: there is no evidence to suggest that smaller
countries are richer or poorer, on average."
- Highlights risk that uncertainty over whether an
independent Scotland would be able to retain sterling could result in an
"EMU-style currency crisis" for the UK.
- "Significant risk" of bank deposits fleeing
Scotland within days of a Yes vote.
- Investor concerns would likely focus on currency
issues, EU membership and future Scottish economic policy. This could
deter investment in Scotland from foreign and British companies.
- The increase in the net debt-to-GDP ratio for the rest
of the UK if Scotland refuses to repay its debt is "relatively
slight" and potentially a price worth paying for avoiding a
dysfunctional monetary union. Scotland would pay more relatively for
issuing its own debt as a result.
- The forex market's single biggest player made sell
sterling its trade of the week on Monday. A "Yes" vote could
drive the pound to $1.56 or lower.
- "With the lessons of the euro zone debt crisis
still fresh in investors' minds, a currency union (after a "Yes"
vote) may weaken sterling in the same way it weakened the euro."
- Concerned that a Scottish exit will raise the chances
of Britain leaving the EU within years.
- Yes vote would prevent the Bank of England from raising
interest rates, encourage "financial fragmentation risks across Europe".
- Negotiations on debt and North Sea oil to fuel
volatility.
- "Yes" voters tend to underperform their
pre-voting polls by a significant margin as minds change in the privacy of
the voting booth.
- Lenders would likely ask for risk premium for borrowing
to newly independent nation.
- A quick 5 percent move, towards the high 0.80s for
euro/sterling, is certainly possible after a Yes vote, and, with this, a
move to the mid-1.50s against the dollar.
- Yes vote could knock 10 percent off value of sterling.
- One of the few banks to focus earlier this year on the
potential that Scotland might not take on its portion of UK public debt.
- Bank's economists chiefly concerned on Monday by the
prospect of Scotland being refused EU entry and the rump UK following it
out after a 2017 referendum on membership.
- "Market complacency on Scotland is
shattered."
- Scotland leaving the UK would make the UK leaving the
EU considerably more likely, which could reduce potential GDP growth by as
much as 0.5 percent per annum.
- Sterling could drop as much as 5 percent against the
dollar after a Yes vote.
- A transition to other currency arrangements would be
complex, with "sterlingisation" or a fixed exchange rate likely
to put upward pressure on Scottish interest rates.
- Still expect downside for the euro against the pound,
but it "could be a bumpy descent" into the vote.
- Scottish bonds could yield between 50 to 150 points
more than AAA gilts, depending on how talks on independence pan out.
- In an "unfriendly outcome" of such talks
between London and Edinburgh, the 10-year gilt asset swap could cheapen by
20 basis points, consistent with a 1-notch credit rating downgrade.
- "If elevated uncertainty receded fairly swiftly, the effects of any lasting decline in the currency might be the dominant consideration, potentially adding to the case for the BoE to begin raising rates."
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)